2022-2023 u16 Rankings vs 2024 1st XV Rankings

1 September, 2024 beet u16 Rugby 6

During the 2024 preseason, I measured the u16 results produced by two great websites:
nextgenxv.com
and
saschoolsports.co.za

and used a weighting of 75% for the year 2022 and 25% for the year 2023 to arrive at a combined ranking.
The goal was to create a guideline of how the schools would perform in 2024.
With the 2024 season concluded, here’s a comparative to the final 1st XV rankings for the two websites.

u16 1st XV SCHOOL u16A u16 NGXV SASS NGXV SASS NGXV SASS
22/23 2024 RANK ORDER POINTS 2022 2022 2023 2023 1st XV 2024 1st XV 2024
1 3 Grey College 200.00 1 1 1 1 3 2
2 1 Paul Roos 196.25 2 2 6 5 1 1
3 4 Affies 194.50 4 4 4 2 4 4
4 2 Paarl Gim 188.75 6 8 7 4 2 3
5 10 KES 188.50 5 6 8 13 11 8
6 7 Durban HS 187.75 7 3 15 12 6 10
7 11 Rondebosch 179.75 14 10 9 8 9 11
8 5 HJS Paarl BH 179.00 10 19 2 3 5 5
9 6 Oakdale 176.75 8 22 5 6 8 6
10 19 Maritzburg College 175.75 13 12 14 16 21 18
11 9 EG Jansen 175.00 3 5 41 43 12 7
12 32 Queen’s 173.00 11 9 29 27 32 31
13 27 Outeniqua 172.75 9 18 21 15 26 28
14 25 Helpmekaar 170.25 16 23 3 7 24 24
15 16 Wynberg 169.00 17 13 23 19 16 20
16 8 Jeppe 163.50 18 14 33 25 7 9
17 15 Boland Landbou 163.25 19 25 13 10 20 15
18 21 Michaelhouse 162.25 21 17 24 21 18 23
19 17 Northwood 161.25 23 20 20 14 15 22
20 23 Stellenberg 158.75 22 15 26 36 30 14
21 24 Noordheuwel 158.00 20 26 16 22 23 21
22 33 Kearsney 155.75 12 7 77 51 37 29
23 34 Drostdy 145.25 26 37 18 20 35 33
24 31 Welkom Gim 144.00 25 21 39 55 27 34
25 47 Hudson Park 141.50 15 16 71 78 52 50
26 12 Waterkloof 140.00 30 43 12 17 10 13
27 14 Westville 138.75 43 34 11 11 17 17
28 22 Monument 134.50 27 45 25 29 25 16
29 26 SACS 131.75 35 41 27 26 28 25
30 40 Voortrekker (Beth) 131.25 29 33 49 48 38 41
31 18 Grey HS 125.50 31 50 28 35 19 19
32 48 Rustenburg 124.50 32 36 54 52 45 57
33 54 Marlow 124.00 24 24 78 90 50 59
34 55 Menlopark 120.75 34 61 17 23 65 45
35 13 Garsfontein 116.25 37 56 34 30 13 12
36 20 Hilton 114.75 33 77 10 9 14 26
37 85 Hopefield 113.50 52 29 62 49 94 75
38 39 Pretoria BH 112.25 45 35 52 67 40 39
39 38 Nelspruit 111.25 28 65 31 53 41 37
40 91 Brandwag (EP) 110.25 39 59 35 38 82 99
41 71 Secunda 109.75 55 31 55 56 74 71
42 29 Framesby 108.75 38 60 38 41 31 27
43 – Pietersburg 104.75 47 39 74 57 UnR. 102
44 30 Selborne 103.50 36 81 19 24 29 30
45 62 Worcester Gim 103.00 54 11 100 UnR. 69 60
46 43 St Andrew’s 101.00 46 58 50 42 43 43
47 41 Pearson 89.25 51 32 UnR. 123 39 42
48 35 Nico Malan 89.25 42 95 22 18 34 35
49 53 Glenwood 85.50 44 88 37 33 58 49
50 113 Montana 82.00 49 44 UnR. 100 98 98
51 44 Durbanville 81.50 40 98 36 32 49 44
52 111 Merensky 79.00 60 53 92 61 97 97
53 109 Northcliff 71.50 UnR. 38 60 45 96 96
54 77 Witteberg 71.25 58 49 UnR. 122 59 122
55 – Tom Naude 70.50 68 40 UnR. UnR. UnR. UnR.
56 97 Jeugland 69.00 53 57 UnR. UnR. 83 104
57 46 Wesvalia 68.75 50 87 53 69 44 51
58 60 Potch Gim 67.50 48 64 UnR. 132 61 63
59 64 Dale 67.00 56 115 30 39 63 66
60 42 St John’s 66.75 UnR. 47 63 34 46 36
61 76 Riebeeckrand 66.25 76 54 81 72 70 89
62 56 Bishops 65.75 41 85 93 74 62 55
63 90 Ermelo 65.25 88 27 UnR. 140 100 78
64 – Leeuwenhof 65.25 70 46 98 118 UnR. 172
65 84 Bergsig 63.75 65 52 UnR. 213 67 67
66 – Kempton Park 63.75 69 48 UnR. 111 UnR. 103
67 52 Charlie Hofmeyr 62.25 64 67 73 93 48 58
68 49 Graeme 61.00 57 102 43 47 56 47
69 28 Diamantveld 59.00 87 73 48 44 22 32
70 – Linden 57.75 83 42 UnR. UnR. UnR. UnR.
71 94 Hugenote (Springs) 57.00 85 70 47 68 81 81
72 86 Rob Ferreira 54.00 62 68 UnR. 137 87 83
73 – Hans Moore 53.25 UnR. 30 UnR. 103 UnR. 111
74 95 Klerksdorp 51.00 86 86 42 46 88 95
75 61 Middelburg 49.75 81 107 32 31 71 54
76 96 Eldoraigne 49.25 79 76 64 82 82 82
77 80 Daniel Pienaar 49.00 66 74 UnR. 91 85 79
78 98 Ellisras 48.75 74 63 UnR. UnR. 85 85
79 88 Die Anker 48.00 97 55 59 UnR. 72 72
80 72 St Alban’s 47.00 61 109 76 58 46 46
81 – Hans Strijdom 46.50 78 62 UnR. UnR. UnR. 117
82 – Otto du Plessis 42.75 94 75 45 85 UnR. 132
83 – Overkruin 42.00 95 51 UnR. UnR. UnR. 101
84 105 Dinamika 41.25 72 99 65 65 93 93
85 73 Brandwag (Benoni) 39.50 UnR. 90 40 37 77 74
86 68 Bellville 38.75 71 106 66 71 73 70
87 63 Marais Viljoen 37.75 82 122 58 50 64 65
88 59 Oos-Moot 37.50 84 72 89 106 68 56
89 66 Transvalia 35.75 UnR. 84 51 59 72 61
90 58 Trio 33.25 75 104 46 UnR. 55 68
91 50 Duineveld 31.50 59 UnR. UnR. 115 42 62
92 102 Ben Vorster 29.50 63 105 UnR. 97 91 113
93 57 St Stithians 29.50 UnR. 118 44 40 67 53
94 99 Ligbron 27.75 UnR. 91 57 64 99 90
95 – Edgemead 26.25 UnR. 66 UnR. 141 UnR. 170
96 – Goudveld 25.50 67 UnR. UnR. 133 UnR. 168
97 37 St Charles 24.50 77 93 UnR. 99 36 40
98 – Hottentots Holland 24.00 UnR. 69 UnR. UnR. UnR. UnR.
99 87 Strand 23.75 UnR. 96 68 54 81 91
100 83 Wolmaransstad 23.75 UnR. 83 UnR. 60 66 137

6 Comments

  1. avatar
    #6 beet

    @agter_die_pale_pa (Comment #3)
    Yes there were a couple of small issues with this data as well but hopefully these are ironed out so that I can post

    ReplyReply
    2 September, 2024 at 18:51
  2. avatar
    #5 beet

    @Vleis (Comment #4)
    Hi Vleis. I agree 100%. That was the intention until a hit a small technical last night. Anyways its fixed now so I have reverted to measuring the 2022/23 vs 2024 for the two relevant websites in order to keep the consistency

    ReplyReply
    2 September, 2024 at 18:50
  3. avatar
    #4 Vleis

    Hi Beet. This is a very interesting analysis, but the scientist in me (or is it OCD in me?) thinks that the 2022/23 u16 results from NGXV and SASS should be compared the 2024 1stXV results from NGXV and SASS. That way, the biases of said systems are not mixed up with the biases of the SBR system. For example, KES pops out at 9.5 and GCB at 2.5 on NGXV and SASS 1stXV 2024, which is closer to their original forecasts.

    ReplyReply
    2 September, 2024 at 14:05
  4. avatar
    #3 agter_die_pale_pa

    Great analysis, thanks Beet. Makes for very interesting reading indeed. Are you planning to share your predictor for 2025?

    ReplyReply
    2 September, 2024 at 09:06
  5. avatar
    #2 beet

    @Kantman (Comment #1)
    Yeah I picked up on Hudson Park and Kingswood. The latter were at 171 for u16 and 30 for 2024 1st XV. A few of the boys that made Hudson Park a force at u16 level in 2022, contributed to Kingswood good season of 2024.

    ReplyReply
    1 September, 2024 at 23:19
  6. avatar
    #1 Kantman

    Not a bad predictor for 1-11! And even further given the impact of 1 or 2 results that has an impact. Stark contrast for 34 & 35 – shows how approach to open age groups recruiting can impact results.

    ReplyReply
    1 September, 2024 at 19:58

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