COVID-19 brings out the best in school leadership

There is still so much uncertainty surrounding the Coronavirus in terms of it’s true potential as a killer, its maximum ability to cause social and economic havoc and the length of time it will take hold of our nation and the rest of the world.

As schools used today (Monday 16 March 202o) to implement government decisions at hast, a big positive to come out of proceedings for parents of students at many of the leading schools in South Africa has to be the manner in which their school’s leadership is responding to the unknown.

Proactive is the operative term that best describes the approach. Headmasters and the teams working hard around them are doing their best to stay up abreast as new information on the virus becomes available and are determined put plans in place that are in the best interests of the students in both the short and long-term.

Possibly the most difficult part of the task at hand right now for school management is being adequately prepare for a situation in which it is not possible for students to return after the Easter holiday (remember the State President has declared an extended school holiday from 18 March until 14 April with a shorter one week shorter midyear holiday to make up for last time).

Amongst the contingency plans being put in place is distance leading. This ranges from online real time classes to recorded teaching sessions being made available for download, to workbooks being prepared for emailing to students and/or made available collection at the schools.

In addition to this, once a form of normality returns, schools are already carefully considering extensions to the academic day by adding one or two more catch up lessons per day. The option of Saturday morning school is also on the cards as part of the effort to ensure that students receive adequate tuition and guidance ahead of the year end examinations.

In the Western Cape, top schools have wasted no time in deciding that sports and cultural activities should be halted long past 14 April and all the way until 30 June.

The vast sums of money spent on rugby are not factoring into the equation at any of the institutions where you may have had the impression it mattered a great deal in the past. Irrespective of losses that will be incurred via direct or indirect funds for festivals, transport, coaches, support staff, players both long term and those brand new to the schools; writing these costs off and even deciding on how to recover part of the  2020 rugby season, are all very much on the back-burner at the moment.

Health, safety and academic education are very much the priorities.

 

 

109 Comments

  1. Die ‘rugbyskole’ wat tradisioneel glad nie akademies sterk is nie, kan nou hulle fokus skuif en die balans weer herstel.

    Party seuns mag dalk net eendag bitter dankbaar wees vir die die koms van Corona..

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  2. @Beet; I am sure the schools with good leadership and adequate resources will rise to the challenge. The concern is however with the bulk of schools out there, who are lacking in the aforementioned. Can these schools, pupils, teachers, parents, etc., somehow be helped or supported in this time? One of the biggest challenges would probably be to keep kids busy and stimulated whilst both parents are expected to be at work. Seems that some companies are being lenient to workers, by allowing time off. Not to spread rumours, but there are good news stories of rapid community activity recovery from the early affected areas (overseas).

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  3. @Andre T: Van wanneer af is jy nou ewe skielik n Boishaai aanhanger?
    My vriende vertel my dat jy vir Hoerskool Vrede ondersteun. Verduidelik asseblief.

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  4. @Andre T: Is it just a strange coincidence that the Coronavirus hit our shores at the same time that Andre T and Hopper popped out of the woodwork? Only joking mate, good to see you back…but what happened to your Monnas (or even Vrede) shirt?

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  5. @Vleis: vrede told me that they do not allow any post matrics it is ethically and morally not the right thing to do so i decided to move to the cape i know the coach personally he organised a blue white and blue hoops jersey for me and i get vip access to the club house

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  6. @Strepie: promise i will the coach players staff and old boys made me feel right at home from the moment i arrived 2 3 gallies

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  7. @Andre T: Nah, be honest, you’ve jumped ship after Vrede lost to Parys (that big place in France) on 1 March. Bloody traitor!

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  8. @tzavosky: the da needed my support in the cape the wine tastes better i have even been invited to museum tours by paarl gim and paul roos very impressive if i can add i even got to watch some athletics now during the summer boishaai training like mad dogs for the rugby season ahead

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  9. @Andre T: Dit help absoluut niks as die seuns soos diere oefen, maar die seisoen is basies iets van die verlede nie.

    Ek is bly om te hoor jy word goed behandel, die mense in die Paarl is ons tiepe mense.

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  10. @Strepie: I’m not sure when he was retired, but it should have been a very long time ago, just after his Vrede1st team tennis days.

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  11. @star: Lol. Howzit Star. I think the Ville side would have ruled supreme, except against Hops sides of 92 – 08 and again from 20…. That said I don’t think the House side would have been a pushover this year. I’m led to believe we’ve been shopping to plug the gaps in the lower age groups, but not in the Eastern Cape. Happy to put a bottle of Glenlivet 12 on the H M, should it be played.

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  12. If the season got going from 1ste of May it will still be 5 months of SBR left.
    They will get all the games if they plan.

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  13. @Gatskop: ons wou graag garsies speel sal seker maar moet wag tot volgende jaar ek mis my vriend speaktackle ek dink hy ook oppad kaap toe nie seker of hy ook boishaai truitjie gaan kry of waar hy homself gaan aansluit nie ek hoor boishaai wil nou teen outeniqua speel nog maar ek weet nie hoe daardie somme gemaak word nie almal moet maat net ontspan en hulself besig hou

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  14. @Andre T: Die gesondheid van elke liewe persoon in ons skole is by verre belangriker as vir twee skole om teen mekaar rugby te speel. Daar is altyd n volgende jaar, dit is regtig ok…

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  15. @Grizzly: Ek dink hulle sal nog al die games die jaar spel. Stel eerder die CW af en laat die skole al hulle games inpas

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  16. Die werklike impak gaan wees op skole wat voedings skemas hardloop. Daai kinders se enigste kos is baie dae die kos wat hulle by die skool kry. Dit is verskriklik om te dink dat daar soveel kinders gedwing gaan word om by die huis te bly, met ouers wat ook moontlik nie sal mag gaan werk nie, of wat nie werk het nie.
    Ek hoop die ekspriement van die WHO werk, want as hulle die risiko van die virus en die impak wat dit gaan he oorskat gaan n land soos ons sin ongelooflik benadeel word.
    Die moontlike gevolg van die virus is dood van weerbare mense. Die moontlike gevolg van die WHO se pandemie reelings is die verhongering, opstand en afbrand van die land wat reeds onder daaglike protes aksies lei.
    Ek het nie n beter plan nie, al wat ek weet is die een moontlike gevolg is dood van weerbare mense en die ander moontlike gevolg is die vernietiging van infrastruktuur (onder andere klinieke en hospitale) en daarna in elke geval die dood van mense.

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  17. @Gatskop: I was thinking about the extreme now. If this situations continues too long in future,for a few months for instance, how will this affect the whole education system? Can learners across the country be forced to repeat their school years the following year if they fall too far behind? Basically repeat the whole year. That can become a possibility:(

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  18. @Gatskop: Dit sal hulle nooit doen nie.Hoop Virseker hier by ons stel n verkorte weergawe voor Soos bv beker affeling 2 poele met wenners wat final speel,tjoef tjaf oor en verby.Dit sal tyd los vir Gim,Kwaggas en Boishaai.Ek kan nie dink ons gaan moontlik nie daai games speel nie…

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  19. We are accustomed to an annual flu season. I wonder how social distancing impacts on this. It surely means that far fewer people will get the flu or common colds during the winter months when immune systems are usually more vulnerable???

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  20. @Beet: I’d like to predict that we should not be too optimistic about a) a return to the SBR season in whatever format and b) a restart of academic programmes this year.

    I’m on the forefront of this and we’ve been thoroughly briefed on the subject during the past week (I don’t know where @Vyfster is in all this, maybe he’s taking social distancing more serious than eveyone else!), it’s not a pretty picture if one looks at the modelling (however difficult that is with our lack of knowledge regarding the behaviour of the virus).

    But we have the advantage of being able to learn from others. One of the biggest problems with Italy is that they didn’t take the threat too seriously initially (their very old population, their socially close lifestyle, their enormous tourist industry – it all added up).

    What we all have to understand is that eventually we will all come into contact with Covid-19. Some will have mild or no symptoms, some will have more serious ones but will recover with supportive treatment, and then there are those who will become seriously ill who will need intensive high tech therapy to survive.

    As much as it is unpredictable who will fall in the last group (the elderly, those with chronic diseases, those with compromised immunity for other reasons the most predictable), the strategy at this point is “to flatten the curve”. What it means is not that we will reduce the number of people being infected, but to draw it out for as long as possible to spread our ability to treat those who are in danger over a longer period.

    If you draw a simple graph of the number of infected people vs time, you will get a Bell-curve type one with an initial steep climb, a flattening on top and then a steady drop as required immunity leads to herd immunity. Somewhere on that graph you can draw a horizontal line which represents the capacity of your health care system to deal with an epidemic, which obviously vary from country to country and community to community.

    So “flattening the curve” means to stretch that Bell-curve along the time-axis to get it below your capacity dotted line. That is the strategy at the moment. It does not mean that fewer people will contract the virus, it only means that it will take longer to do so. Our only tools at the moment are isolation of infected people and social distancing to try and slow it down.

    If we don’t get this right, we will end up with the dreaded concept of triage, where the medical fraternity will have to decide who we will try to rescue and who we will leave to die. This is not a fatalistic approach, it is a real scenario that we sometimes have to deal with. The person being left to die could be your friend, family member, spouse.

    At this point modelling is hard, but I predict it will continue for at least the next 6 months. The restrictions on us may become even a lot harsher – a total lock down on our movements in the near future is not totally out of the question.

    As a side note, people who are trying to make a political issue out of this, should please stop. The extensive briefing we had the past week was a live video conference presented by one of our major private hospital groups with international experience of what’s happening in Europe and the Middle East. The first thing to be aware of is that government didn’t make decisions all on their own – they were guided by the best local expertise as well as the World Health Organisation. This time they didn’t hesitate to listen.

    Secondly, there is close cooperation between the Dept of Health and all the major private hospital groups – we are all in this together – which I think what is desperately needed.

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  21. @tzavosky: Dr, I have been closely following the very unfortunate development of the pandemic since early January. I was very worried right from start because science as such is a big interest of mine (big fan of Livescience!) and for decades I have been reading that a lethal virus like COVID-19 is not a case of “if but when”.

    I think your synopsis (including your earlier contributions on the subject) is very informative, very well structured and unfortunately spot on. The bloggers with a bit a mathematical background will understand what an exponential function graph is. Once you reach the elbow of the graph the impact becomes very real, very quickly. I thought you did an excellent job in explaining the principle in a way that even the uninitiated can appreciate.

    My best wishes to you and the other health care professionals. You are approaching a period in the history of the healthcare and medical occupations where the ability of the discipline is going to be tested like rarely before.

    PS: In more general terms – I have always enjoyed the astute observations you post on the blog.

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  22. @Herakles: Thanks for your flattering comments. It is just my view that knowledge is power, and if I can contribute a little bit to that, I’ve done my duty.

    About your last comment, for me it’s like what Doc Craven once said – “For me it’s Rugby, South African rugby, Maties, Western Province, in that order”. I simply love the game too much to make it any different, although I’ll admit I’m very old school.

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  23. @tzavosky: Ek sal graag jou reaksie wil he op die post van Isreal se Min van buitelandse sake.Google Israel foreign affairs min speech.@Strepie: GOOGLE jy ook,sal graag jou reaksie wil hoor.Ek is saam Gatskop,die collateral op sosio ekonomiese vlak as dit ooit gemeet Kan word gaan devastating is SA wees.

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  24. @Grizzly: Dat rugby nogsteeds genoem word in enige Corona gesprek is onaanvaarbaar, kyk na die groter prentjie Menere!!

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  25. Beet, there is currently not any sports being played so kindly allow me to indulge in posting on a subject that has got nothing to do with SBR but which came to mind whilst drafting my post of 21 March.

    I pointed out that I first became aware of the possibility of a pandemic decades ago and I was not exaggerating. It was circa 1980 with me being about sixteen years of age. My source was the Google of the day for teenage boys, and actually many men in South Africa. And no, it was not the Encyclopedia Britannica – it was the Scope magazine.

    For the benefit of the youngsters on SBR – Scope published its final issue in 1996, at its peak being the best-selling English magazine in South Africa. It was a primary source of information on two very important subjects, firstly photographs assisting in unraveling the mysteries of the female anatomy (more about that later) and secondly the publishing of a variety of interesting and sometime contentious stories on the issues of the day. (Older bloggers may recall the magazine’s existence and its controversy.)

    Scope would occasionally publish stories of a scientific nature which round about 1980 included a “Doomsday” article. Over and above the usual horror stories about a nuclear winter and a massive meteorite destroying all life on the planet, the account of past pandemics and the inevitability of the same happening again, made a lasting impression on my young mind. I am sad to say that the doom prophets of 40 years ago seem to have been right in their assessment.

    Be that as it may, let’s move to the other primary reason for Scope’s existence – paying homage to the female body shape. At the time South Africa had very unique legislation, including the Publications and Entertainment Act, 42 of 1963 and the Indecent and Obscene Photography Matter Act 37 of 1967. The Publications Control Board was the statutory body where complains in terms of contraventions of these acts could be submitted.

    Scope continuously tested the boundaries set by these two acts. (I, for one, as a young boy and an avid studier of the photographical material in Scope, for a long time believed that South African females had no ni**les – until I learned that they applied airbrushing!)

    The mothers of the Afrikaner nation were very concerned about the moral decay that Scope caused amongst the male population of South Africa. They organised themselves into number of structures to fight the evil that the magazine brought into our society, committed to fight it with tooth and nail. These structures had awe inspiring names like “Die Aksie vir Morele Standaarde” en “Die Kappie-kommando”.

    This resulted in a very fascinating dynamic. Scope would be published on Friday. Together with many males in South Africa, the “tannies” would buy their own copes, scrutinising it for anything improper. More often than not, by Monday they would lodge their complaint at the Publications Control Board. The complaint would be considered and if successful, by Tuesday the decision would be made public, a press release made and a process started to instruct all the police stations in South Africa to visit all the outlets to attach all the copies of Scope not yet been sold.

    In practice the story was in all the newspapers by Wednesday morning and by Wednesday evening all the morally corrupt males (desperate to see what was so decadent that they were not allowed to see it) in South Africa, who hadn’t yet bought their own copy of Scope, did so without ado. By Thursday, when the members of the SAP pitched at the outlets selling Scope, all the copies of that edition were already sold out.

    Scope, in spite of all the good articles appearing in it, eventually folded in 1996 when the two restrictive acts that in a macabre way secured their existence, were repealed.

    Those were the days!

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  26. @Herakles: I do remember Scope and quite interesting what you say about the change in legislation that should have allowed it to thrive, but actually opened up the SA market to rival publications with content that ultimately saw it fold.

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  27. @Herakles: Ah, Scope! Let me add two stories WITH rugby content from that magazine.

    But first the background. I grew up in the Little Karoo town of Barrydale. Somewhere in the early 70’s oom Thinus Slabber from Hopefield bought the local hotel with the delightful name of The Valley Inn (these days the Karroo Art Hotel). Part of the hotel was a little corner cafe at one end of a long stoep which sold all the popular magazines of the time, including Scope.

    I became friends with Jannie, the youngest son of oom Thinus and we had free acces to all those magazines in the cafe. The first article I want to talk about is the one about the Paraguayan aerolane carrying a group of rugby players on their way to Chile which crashed in the Andes mountains and the survivors had to eat the bodies of their dead compatriots to stay alive for several months before they were rescued. If someone on here has never read the story, I highly recommend you read Nando Parrado’s Miracle in the Andes, a first person version of the ordeal. It is really the ultimate survival story, apart maybe from Amundson and Scott’s race for the south pole.

    Anyway, Scope was the first publication to run that amazing story in South Africa.

    The other one was about deaths in American Football published in Scope in 1974. The premise of that one was that a study found the leading cause of death was the hard helmets they wear. It’s 50 years down the line and Gridiron has learnt very little, or indeed learnt but did very little about it.

    Oh, I also learnt a few other things from Scope, like all ladies wear three silver stars strategically on there bodies, which I think is not good sportsmanship…

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  28. @tzavosky: I can recall the cannibal story happening in the Andes mountains and also at the time being absolutely horrified by the detail thereof. I do not know if I have the appetite to read a first hand account of what happened there – no pun intended.

    I was born in Ceres and was in Laerskool Vredenburg until 1977. Although I have never visited Barrydale, I know where it is situated. Hopefield was a town we regularly drove through on our way to Cape Town to visit my grandparents – long before the West Coast road was constructed.

    If memory serves my right, it was exactly the stars that caused the problems. Sometimes they were just a bit too small or not placed strategically enough (most probably on purpose) and that really got the tannies up in arms!

    Gridiron, boxing and rugby are the obvious culprits insofar as head injuries are concerned. However, if I am not mistaken, soccer is also a sport where players are prone to concussion or some form of brain damage if exposed to the routine heading of a soccer ball.

    Back to rugby – I never allowed my two sons to go onto a rugby field without protective headgear. Except for preventing cuts, I always believed that it must lessen the effect of head impacts. My hunch was vindicated when I read about a study done at the Dundee University which was published in the British Medical Journal in 2018. It was found that protective head gear reduces head injuries in rugby by almost 50%. The recommendation was that the use of headgear should be made compulsory at all levels of rugby.

    However, I have never heard coaches at school level promoting the wearing of headgear. Beet, do you or any of the bloggers know if there is any specific policy in existence regarding this subject – perhaps Boksmart or something similar?

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  29. @Herakles: The most dangerous sports are darts, most players died because of liver failure and bowls, because of hart attacks.

    I found my first Scope on a closet in my grandmothers bedroom.
    Why i she had it i never asked and i couldent read the big english words at that time.

    Scope in the army was a different thing. The articles was intertaining but very inaccurate.
    The pictures was great, but the letters was brilliant. :lol:

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  30. @Gatskop: Point taken.

    You shouldn’t have been trying to read the magazine. At that age looking at the pictures should have sufficed.

    Scope’s editorials sometimes contained real gems. They once published a story about a guy on his way home from work on a Friday night. He got involved in the flashing of brights with another driver that had cut him off. They stopped, a road rage incident ensued and he was consequently beaten to the brink of death, spending a long time in hospital.

    All he in actual fact wanted to do was to get home to his family, have a drink and enjoy dinner. Allowing himself to react to the provocation of another person that really should not have had any practical implication on his life, resulted in a lot of misery.

    The editorial ended with the words:”Life is about reaching your objectives and not about ass-kicking.”

    In my line of work I have shared this piece of wisdom countless times with clients.

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  31. @tzavosky: Ons het alles probeer om daardie sterretjies te verwyder, van jik, spiritus, presslap tot flits van die agterkant, :lol: niks het gewerk nie.

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  32. @Jan Kriel:Baie snaaks, veral omdat dit hoogs waarskynlik die reine waarheid is!

    Daardie desperaatheid om net ‘n klein bietjie na die verbode vrugte te loer, is iets wat vandag se kinders glad nie sal verstaan nie.

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  33. Laat my dink aan die storie van die outjie wat by die huis gekom het en vir sy Pa gevra het “Pa, wat is n D**S”..Toe seg sy pa..”Dis die ou wat die sterretjies in die Scope plak”….

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  34. @Herakles: That scope article was about the ebola virus, it was actully taken from the, book The Hot zone by Richard Preston…. Read it if you can it is quite scary and very applicable to the situation today… BtW Samanta Fox was my personal favorite

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  35. @BoishaaiPa: Ja, kyk, eintlik het daai ou opgestaan en ‘n ou vergeelde Scope onder uit die klerekas gaan haal, toe maak hy hom oop by daai 3 bladsy oopvou centre spread. Toe sê hy vir die laaitie, “Sien jy die twee sterretjies hier bo?” “Ja, Pa.” “Nou sien jy die groot een hier onder?” “Ja, Pa.” “Die ou wat hóm geplak het, is ‘n D**S!”

    BTW, dis vir my interessant dat die bloggers wat onderworpe was aan Jeugweerbaarheid waar ons gewaarsku is dat Scope, popmusiek, hippies, gehapte appels en reverse masking korruptering deur die kommuniste was, nog steeds sleg uitgedraai het!

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  36. Manne, ek moet erken dat in ‘n tyd van erge bedruktheid in Suid-Afrika, julle posterings my laat giggel het.

    Verwysings na Jeugwaarbaarheid bring besondere herinneringe terug. Al wat ons ooit in die Jeugweerbaarheid-periode gedoen het, was om te dril – beide die seuns en meisies. (Geen bestudering van die Scope nie!)

    Ek was in Kathu op skool (een van die warmer dorpe in die land), ‘n klipgooi vanaf die Lohatla-weermagbasis. Elke dan en wan het van hul korporaals ons onder hande geneem en opgevoeter. Andersins het die Matriekseuns die rol van die korporaals vervul.

    Ek het dril met ‘n passie gehaat. Daar was tog ‘n stadium in die jaar wanneer dit meer draaglik geraak het. Elke jaar op 1 September die skooldrag van die winterdrag na somerdrag verander. Vir die meisies het die verandering behels dat hul lang rompe met kort, ligblou skoolrokke vervang was. Dit was ook die tyd van die jaar wat lente-winde begin woed het.

    Die moedswilliges onder die Matriekseuns wie die meisies gedril het, het gewag tot die wind behoorlik opgetel het, die bevel “Makeer die pas” gegee, teruggestaan en die uitsig bewonder.

    Dus, Dr T, solank testosteroon bestaan, gaan geen organisasie, wet of regulasie “sleg uitdraai” – in die beste sin van die woord – verhoed nie!

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  37. @Herakles: There is no specific policy regarding head gear at schoolboy level.

    What amazes me is that children invariably start wearing it after a concussion scare – prevention must be better than reaction.

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  38. @tzavosky:Nog nie van jou vergeet nie,sal kyk of ek vir Beet kan mail.@Herakles: My beste pal was hoof van drank en sedes by SANAP pta in die vroee 90’s.

    Saterdae oggende het ek en Hy gaan aanklop by huise,so 3,4 op n slag.Veiligheid het weekliks gebel en dan die ouens wat blue movies in gevoer het se adresse is deur gegee(ja,veiligheid het alle buitelandse pos oop gemaak,alles 8-O ).

    Jy Moes die ouens se gesigte gesien het na “More,eks kaptein ….van SANAP,jyt hierdie week so en so van oorsee ontavang(die name van die movies),gaan haal asb”.Daars nie een keer tee gestribel nie…was gewoonlik welgesteld….Net,asb moet nie aresteer nie,pleit….

    Ongelooflik om te dink dat die regering van die dag n volskaalse oorlog was,in die binneland volskaalse onluste moes hanteer,dan infrastruktuur ontwikkel het wat daar was vir almal om te sien,tegnelogies Kern wapens en petrol uit steenkool ontwikkel….maar Dan nog die petty crime kon beheer op die vlak,daar was geen wegkom kans nie….Sal daai level of excellence nooit weer sien nie…

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  39. Ek wil graag vir al die ouens wat van more af gaan moet werk om ons land veilig te hou se, chaps sterkte, ons gaan getoets word soos nog nooit van tevore nie, wees maar geduldig en onthou as die besigheid klaar is gaan jy jou buurman weer moet in die oe kan kyk…. En die ouens wat by die huis moet bly, bly asb by die huis, moenie die manne se werk moeiliker maak as wat dit al reeds gaan wees nie…. Sterkte almal en I’ll see you in the trenches…

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  40. Dit is jammer ons kan nou nie die befaamde Gim 2020 span teen Grey College sien speel vanjaar nie.
    Daar is sake wat veel meer aandag geniet en wat belangriker en ernstiger is.

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  41. @boerboel: Ek sal nou die so stel nie. Ek weet nie hoe jy daardie afleiding maak nie.
    Beide Gim en Grey het uitmuntende spanne vanjaar.
    Sou n tweestryd om die nr1 posisie gewees het, die res…n baie ver 3de plek ens.

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  42. @Strepie: Boerboel? Nee wat , hy is een van die min hier dommer as iemand wat bry en brei gepas vind in ‘n rugby gesprek, nie weet wie Jan Smuts is nie, en is boonop bitter common ook, of nee, ek meen kommin. Ek weet nie wat gebeur het tussen PRG en Wynberg nie, en dit maak nie veel saak nie, maar as ek my skool daaraan moet meet sal ek seker ook ophou werf en begin koop en afrokkel. Gelukkig beweeg ons op ‘n heel ander vlak en in die diep deel van die genepoel, waar iemand soos Boerboel sal sink, geoordeel aan die stuk 30%er wat hy daar gebesig het. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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  43. @Smallies: Oor daai selfde ding gedink. Maar hopelik gebruik die ouens die geleentheid om ‘n slag met die mense om hulle te gesels (nie dat ek sê ons doen dit nie, maar darem).

    Dondernag wakker geword in die middel van die nag en kon nie uitwerk hoekom nie, toe staan ek later op en gaan luister by die venster – ek het nie gedink die stilte in die afwesigheid van voertuigverkeer kan ‘n mens wakker maak nie!

    Op ‘n manier, as hierdie eendag oor is, gaan ons wens dit het nooit opgehou nie.

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  44. @Smallies: Min mense besef wat dit vat om Likkewaan te wees. Ouens soos Boerboel sal hulself bekak indien hulle besef dat 3 bewaarders meer as 1200 geharde kriminele moet oppas. Sterkte

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  45. Smallies en neem aan jy is n bewaarder?
    Het nogal gewonder wat almal op die blog doen vir n lewe buiten nonsens met mekaar gesels.

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  46. Something very interesting has come up with Covid-19, and since is very quiet on the blog, I thought I’ll post something for the few remainers.

    So, a group of epidemiologists from the USA looked at the infection and mortality figures of all countries that have report cases and came to the conclusion that countries with universal BCG vaccination (UBV – that’s vaccination for TB) generally have both a much lower spread of infection and mortality, and significantly so.

    Before I show you some figures, it’s important to know that correlation does not mean causation in statistics (almost all rapists wear shoes, but wearing shoes is not the reason behind rape). Also, levels of testing for the virus varies a lot from country to country, so total figures are not very reliable at the moment. Mortality figures, though, more closely resemble what is happening in this regard.

    So I’ve crunched the figures last night, determining the mortality rate per 100 000 of the population of different countries and compared it with BCG immunisation status (as supplied by the World BCG Map) of countries. The results are astonishing and correlate strongly with Unversal BCG Immunisation.

    Some samples (deaths/100 000; *indicates no UBV):

    Western Europe:
    Italy 23* (never had UBS)
    Spain 21*
    Belgium 8.7*
    Netherlands 7.7*
    France 6.7*
    UK 4.3*
    Ireland 1.5

    Eastern Europe:
    Poland 0.5
    Greece 0.49
    Turkey 0.4
    Romania 0.48
    Russia 0.02

    Middle East:
    Iran 3.8 (started UBV only in 1989)
    Israel 0.33
    Qatar 0.11
    UAE 0.08
    Jordania 0.05
    Saudi Arabia 0.006

    Southeast Asia:
    Indonesia 0.064
    India 0.037
    Thailand 0.021
    Sri Lanka 0.013
    Bangladesh 0.004

    East Asia and Oceania:
    Australia 0.9* (UBV for Aborigines)
    Japan 0.5
    Korea 0.3
    China 0.23
    Malaysia 0.1

    N-America:
    USA 1,5*
    Canada 0.33* (UBV for Inuit people)
    Mexico 0.29

    S-America:
    Ecuador 0.7*
    Peru 0.12
    Brazilia 0.11
    Chile 0.1
    Argentina 0.07

    Mediterranean Africa:
    Algeria 0.12
    Tunisia 0.12
    Egypt 0.06
    Morocco 0.01

    Sub-Saharan Africa:
    Burkina Faso 0.07
    DRC 0.02
    South Africa 0.012
    Nigeria 0.009

    Obviously, the mortality rate is a factor of when the first case was reported in a country, the measures taken to slow down the spread, etc, but overall the trend is there.

    Australia has now started a trial with BCG vaccination among 4000 health care workers, so we’ll know pretty soon whether correlation actually does mean causation. If so, there certainly is some benefit in growing up in a shithole country!

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  47. @tzavosky: Mind-blowing,maak seker dat jy die data by die regte persone kry.Ek wil net seker maak ek verstaan jou reg.Is dit die inenting wat die babas moet kry op die geel kaartjies,hetsy by hospitaal of daarna by klinieke?Ek dink dink die TB was druppels onder die tong? Hoekom sal Italie en daai lande dit nie doen nie,is die gevaar vir TB laag daar?

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  48. @Grizzly: Die data is van 1) WHO se daaglikse situasie verslae vir alle lande en “territories” 2) World BCG Vaccination webblad.

    BCG is daai inenting wat die babas op hulle bo-arm kry met ‘n hele aantal prikmerke in ‘n sirkel gerangskik.

    Sommige lande het nooit die inenting gehad nie, omdat die risiko vir TB baie laag is, sommiges het gehad, maar namate TB skaars geword het, het hulle dit as onnodig geag en gestaak.

    Die vraag is hoekom ‘n TB-vaksien voordelig sal wees teen ‘n virus. Dit is normaalweg die geval dat ‘n vaksien baie spesifiek teen een mikroorganisme is, maar verskeie studies in die verlede het getoon dat BCG jou immuunsisteem baie breër “prime” om lugweginfieksies oor ‘n wye front te beveg.

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  49. @Grizzly: As ek reg is, is die hoe tb is ons land lynreg gekoppel aan HIV infeksie so as jou imuunstelsel gekompromiseer is gaan jy baie maklik TB kry…. Ek het al baie gev gesien wat eers HIV is en dan TB ontwikkel later…

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  50. @Grizzly: Ons behoort almal geïmmuinseerd te wees teen TB, ten minste as kinders. Sommige lande gee “boodster” immunisasie vir volwassenes as deel van hulle skedules, maar dit word nie by ons gedoen nie (dis nie heeltemal sonder gevare nie). Ons is het wel tydens ons kliniese jare boosters ontvang, maar ons jonger kollegas nie.

    Jou vraag oor die hoë insidensie – enige iets wat jou immuunstelsel aftakel, maak jou meer vatbaar – soos Smallies tereg opgemerk het, HIV speel ‘n groot rol, want die virus takel juis jou immuunstelsel.

    Sover ek kon vasstel is 90% van mense in SA geïmmuniseer, met 98% in die Wes-Kaap. Maar die Wes-Kaap het ook die hoogste voorkoms van TB, hoofsaaklik onder die bruin bevolking – meer hieroor in ‘n volgende pos.

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  51. @Grizzly: OK, die onderliggende redes vir vatbaarheid vir TB is multifaktoriaal van aard, maar dit kom neer op sosio-ekonomiese omstandighede en genetika. Iets soos alkoholisme takel jou immuunstelsel af, en ons weet die voorkoms is hoog in die Wes-Kaap.

    Dis ook besonder hoog waar baie mense saam woon in beknopte, donker en swak geventileerde blyplekke – die TB basil oorleef langer in so ‘n mileu, wat die risiko vir infeksie verhoog.

    En dan genetika. Jy moet jouself die guns doen en gaan oplees oor die pokke epidemie aan die Kaap in 1713 – SA History Online het ‘n beknopte artikel daaroor. Daai epidemie het ‘n baie hoë tol geëis onder die slawe sowel as die Europese bevolking, maar vir die Khoikhoi was dit verwoestend – net sowat 10% van die Suidwes-Kaap se Khoikhoi het dit oorleef.

    Daai situasie is nie uniek aan SA nie, die Amerikaanse Indiane het net so deurgeloop toe Europeërs daar opdaag. Die rede is dat pokke ‘n baie ou siekte in Europa was, en hy het daai tyd alreeds sy genetiese seleksie van weerstandiges gedoen. Vir die Khoi was dit ‘n totaal nuwe siekte (net soos Covid-19 nou vir almal), so hulle het geen natuurlike weestand gehad nie.

    Ek weet nie of jy die storie van Edward Jenner ken nie, maar daar is ‘n soortgelyke siekte as pokke wat onder beeste voorkom (waarskynlik waar menspokke vandaan gekom het), so Jenner het waargeneem dat Europese melkmeisies nie siek geword het tydens pokke edemies nie, en korrek afgelei dat hulle beskerm is deur hulle blootstelling aan beespokke (die twee virusse is baie nou verwant), en gevolglik beespokke begin gebruik het om mense te immuniseer, met uitstekende gevolge.

    Soortgelyk is TB by die mens naby verwant aan bees-TB, en soos jy mag weet is beeste in Eurasië gedomestikeer, en dus was Europeërs vir eeue blootgestel aan bees-TB en het n mate van immuniteit ontwikkel. Die bruin bevolking van die Wes-Kaap is hoofsaaklik afstammelinge van die oorspronklike Khoi bevolking, met dieselfde onderliggende gebrekkige genetiese weerrstaandigheid teen TB.

    Jy sal oplet in my oorspronklike pos dat Kanada en Australië nog steeds BCG immunisering doen vir onderskeidelik die Inuit en Aborigenes – hulle het dieselfde onderliggende gebrekkige weerstand teen TB as die afstammelinge van die Khoi, met warskynlik dieselfde onderliggende sosio-ekonomiese situasies.

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  52. @tzavosky: Ek het jou stukkie leesstof nou baie interresant gevind. My dogter werk in die melkbedryf as wetenskaplike en bedryf n melkplaas hier in die Weskaap. Sy het ook vir n jaar in Florida op n melkplaas gewerk en my vertel dat hulle gereeld beeste in-ent teen n tipe Corona strain. Dit kan wees dat haar werk tussen melkbeeste haar dalk ook n kans gegee het om beter immuniteit teen die virus op te bou as ek so na jou melkmeisie storie lees. Mens hoop maar altyd vir die beste!

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  53. @tzavosky: Ek het ook nogal aan die Amerikaanse Indiane gedink toe die hele kovid 19 besigheid begin het….. Soos ek dit sien is die feit dat die n splinternuwe virus is die grootste probleem… Daar is soos geen weerstand teen dit nie en dit is waar die probleem le, oor 10 jaar van nou af wanneer die virus nou al deur n paar siklusse gegaan het sal die prentjie heeltemal anders lyk, kovid 19 gaan deel van ons nageslag wees soos wat masels griep en ander siektes deel van ins erfenis is

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  54. @BoishaaiPa: Vroeg in die Covid epidemie is melding gemaak van die Israelis wat alreeds aan entstof teen corona werk, maar dit was ietwat misplaas. Daar is ‘n coronavirus wat ook onder hoenders voorkom, en dis daaraan wat die Israelis werk.

    Maar virusse muteer voortdurend. Die goed se genetiese materiaal bestaan uit baie kort kettings DNA of RNA, wat die gasheersel se genetiese materiaal vir hulle moet dupliseer. Soms sluip daar foute in met die transkripsie wat meestal fataal is vir die virus, wat dan ophou repliseer en uitsterf (in evolusionêre terme het die organisme homself in ‘n doodloopstraat geëvoleer), maar soms gebeur dit dat die verandering in genetiese materiaal nie fataal is nie, en siedaar, ‘n nuwe strain waarteen daar nie weerstand is nie.

    Dis meestal net ‘n kwessie van of die virus die sprong vanaf ‘n dier na die mens kan maak wat ‘n totaal nuwe epidemie veroorsaak, ‘n storie wat waarskynlik so oud soos die mensdom is.

    Sal die mens ooit uitgewis word deur ‘n aansteeklike siekte? Baie onwaarskynlik, want daar is groot genetiese variasie onder mense en daar sal altyd ‘n groep wees wat gevolglik sal oorleef.

    Een van die interessantste stories oor HIV is dat daar ‘n gay ou in New York was (ek het nou sy naam vergeet) wat weerstandig was teen die virus – omtrent 80 van sy vriendekring is dood daaraan, maar hy het niks oorgekom nie. Sy huisdokter het hom toe na ‘n instituut verwys wat navorsing gedoen het op die virus.

    Die navorsers het toe ontdek wat hy ‘n afwesige reseptor op sy selle het wat feitlik alle ander mense het, wat veroorsaak dat die virus nie aan sy selle kan vasheg vir replikasie nie. Vandaar is antiretrovirale middels ontwikkel wat die reseptor blok.

    Laastens, sal die mens vir ewig op aarde wees? Nope. Dis net ‘n kwessie van tyd voor ‘n massiewe meteoriet weer die aarde tref, dan loop ons die paadjie van die dinosourusse. Of dalk iets anders wat drastiese klimaatverandering veroorsaak. Dis omtrent die storie van die aarde.

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  55. @tzavosky: Die vet weet – dit is net ‘n plesier om jou posterings te lees. Ek het amper ophou asemhaal by die nalees daarvan.

    Doet so voort!

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  56. Goeie more almal.
    Ek gooi n klip in die bos – wat is die kans dat die Craven- en ander weke nog gaan plaasvind?

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  57. @boerboel: Ek dink die volgende twee weke sal bepaal wat gebeur, as die lockdown verleng word dink ek die jaar is n washout, ek het gister vir my dogter gese sy moet dalk begin dink daaraan dat sy volgende jaar moontlik weeer in matriek gaan sit

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  58. @boerboel: Uitsonderlike omstandighede – uitsonderlike uitkomste.

    Hierdie is ‘n eenkeer in ‘n leeftyd belewenis vir 99% van die weergawes van homo sapiens, tans in lewe, sedert die spesies as sulks ge-evoleer het omtrent 200 000 jaar gelede.

    Ek, en my gade – ‘n senior lektor (Ekonomie) by ‘n toonaangewende akademiese instelling in die Vrystaat – berei my Matriek-dogter al vir weke voor dat sy heel moontlik eers aan die einde van 2021 gaan Matrikuleer. Haar akademiese asperasies is baie hoog en berus sy onwillig in die insigte wat ek en my gade tans rondom die gobale krisis met haar deel – al werk sy nog daagliks daaraan om haar 2020-oogmerke te bereik.

    As almal in ons gesin die pandemie ongeskonde oorleef, sal ons onbeskryflik dankbaar wees. Die werklikheid kan egter baie anders wees en ek is op ‘n intellektuele vlak angstig dat die akademiese studie soos deur Dr T uitgewys, wel ‘n mate van beskerming aan ons gemeenskap in geheel sal verskaf. Die alternatiewe “is to ghastly to contemplate.”

    Skoolrugby as sulks?

    Dit is iets wat seuns na alle waarskynlik net op Playstation en Xbox gaan beoefen tot tot minste die aanbreek van 2021!

    En as ‘n enorme aanhanger van skole-rugby, verlustig ek my allermins daaraan.

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  59. @Strepie: My maat, al 3 my kinders het Biologie as skoolvak gehad, en ek is terdeë bewus van hoe onderwysers (en selfs biologie onderwysers) en ouers voel as die onderwerp van evolusie ter sprake kom. Ou Theodosius Dobzhanski het gesê “Nothing in Biology makes sense except in the light of evolution”. Hulle jaag my binne die eerste 5 minute van my praatjie weg!

    Dis soos arme ou Galileo en heliosentrisme, wat eers nou anderdag deur die kerk om verskoning gevra is oor wat hulle aan hom gedoen het, eeue nadat hy dood is. Dit smaak my al te veel daai manne vergewe nie so maklik as wat hulle sê nie.

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  60. @Herakles: Ek het dieselfde spesmaas as jy oor die akademiese jaar. My jongste dogter doen die jaar honneurs in Dierkunde, en hulle is vandag laat weet dat hulle praktiese projekte van die baan is. So, waar honneurs veronderstel is om jou te leer hoe om navorsing te doen, gaan jy dit teoreties leer doen. Baie ver van ideaal.

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  61. 10 jaar gelede het 1.4 biljoen mense varkgriep gekry en tussen 500 000 en 600 000 mense is dood.
    Dit alles het in n paar maande gebeur. Varkriep is baie erger as wat Corona ooit sal wees.
    Die kinders sal eksamen skryf en rugby speel die jaar nog.
    Die ekspriment van die WHO gaan meer mense doodmaak as wat Corona ooit sal regkry.
    Maak julle kinders rustig en laat hulle voorberei vir die eindeksamen. Laat hulle fiks bly en lees vergelyk gerus maar self die sterftes van die verskillende virusse die laaste 100 jaar.
    2014 Ebola hulle skat meer as 300 000 mense het doodgegaan net in Afrika met 39% van alle besmette mense wat gesrerf het.
    2009 was die varkgriep epidemie… Niemand het eers ophou vlieg of skoolgaan nie.
    HIV wat ook die einde van die wereld was het sover 32 mil mense doodgemaak wat bevestig kan word volgens die WHO.
    1968 griep pandemie het 1.3 miljoen mense doodgemaak in die tydperk wat Corona nie eers can kan droom nie.
    1957 se Asian flu pandemie het 1.2 miljien bevestigde gevalle sterfgevalle gehad en dit was basies net getalle wat getel is in die ooste en weste uitgesluit Afrika en Suid Amerika.
    Natuurlik die groot een 1919 se Spanish flu. Gaan lees die boeke van FA Venter om te verstaan wat daar gebeur het. 50mil mense in n paar maande.
    So kom ons los die melodrama van hoe erg die Corona virus is.
    1 lewe wat verloor word is te veel en die feit dat ons die wereld ekonomie vernietig om lewens te spaar wys ons het harte.
    Kom ons hoop die skade wat ons doen aan biljoene mense se inkomste, lewens, besighede is die opoffering werd. Dit aan die wereld terugsit vir bitter lank.
    Die finansieele modelle wys dat die gevolg van die WHO se ekspriment miljoene mense se lewens kan kos.
    Die gevolg van tekort aan geld vir medikasie en nodige hulpmiddels wat selfs oor 10 jaar van nou nog steeds 100de duisende mense se lewens reg oor die 3de wereld elke maand kan kos.
    Maar wat weer ek….. Seker die gevolg van afsondering van die res van die bevolking.
    Die massas is honger…. Hoop die opoffering is dit werd.

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  62. @tzavosky: Heliosentrisme!

    Ek is beindruk. Dit is waaragtig nie ‘n woord wat ek gedink ek ooit op SBR sou raaklees nie. Copernicus het met die hipotese vorendag gekom, maar was dit Galileo wat dit detyds met die waarneming van Jupiter se mane en Venus se fases deur sy teleskope, in ‘n omstrede teorie verander het.

    Vir sy insig en moeite was hy as ketter aangemerk – soos tereg deur jou uitgewys.

    Ek het so 15 jaar terug vir my ‘n teleskoop gekoop en self Jupiter met sy mane asook die fases van Venus bekyk. (Laasgenoemde kan jy sommer met ‘n goeie verkyker wat jy stil hou, sien.) Dit het my groot genoegdoening gegee om eerstehands te sien wat Galileo meer as 400 jaar gelede waargeneem het.

    Ongelukkig het misdaad tot gevolg gehad dat al my bure mettertyd superhelder kolligte op hul erwe aangebring het en veroorsaak die “lig-besoedeling” (soos sterrekykers dit noem) dat dit nie meer sinvol is om vanuit my agterplaas deur my teleskoop na die hemelruim te kyk nie.

    Ek is net altyd verstom oor hoe uit die boks jy moet dink en op watter manier jou brein bedraad moet wees om met vir die eerste keer met ‘n begrip soos heliosentrisme vorendag te kom.

    En op die onderwerp van COVID-19 en slim wees, Dr Tony Fauci, 79-jaar oue hoof van die NIAID, het volgens die een bron wat ek gelees het, wereldwyd reeds 45 ere-doktersgrade ontvang. Ek dink hy maak die Amerikaners baie meer gerus as Trump!

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  63. @Gatskop: Die probleem is dat hierdie virus op ‘n eksponentiele wyse aansteek en doodmaak. Die kurwe is nog met ‘n skerp gradient in die opwaartse fase en volgens alle modelle globaal nog ver van uitgewoed.

    Ons sal waarskynlik eers oor twee of drie jaar appels met appels kan vergelyk en sinvol die huidige pandemie teen vorige uitbrake kan opweeg.

    Natuurlik hoop ek/almal jy is reg, maar ‘n magdom wetenskaplikes is ‘n ander mening toegedaan.

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  64. @Gatskop: Soos Herakles tereg sê, dis gans te vroeg in die pandemie om voorspellings te maak van oor wat die totale mortaliteitsyfer gaan wees.

    Die Spaanse griep het nie 50 miljoen mense in ‘n kwessie van ” ‘n paar maande” gedood nie, dit het geduur van 1918-1920 en daar was ‘n aantal “golwe” van infeksie. Bygesê, mediese kennis en behandelingsmetodes is tans wêrlde verwyder van wat dit tydens die Spaanse Griep was, so ‘n mens sal verwag dat Covid-19 nie dieselfde impak sal hê nie.

    Jy is korrek, wêreldwyd gaan die ekonomie ‘n moerse knock vat. Die vraag is, wat gaan die effek op die ekonomie wees as miljoene mense sterf. Veronderstel jy is ‘n boukontrakteur (om ‘n eenvoudige voorbeeld te noem) en ‘n beduidende persentasie van jou werksmag (waarvan ‘n beduidende groep gespesialiseerde kennis en opleiding het) gaan dood – dit gaan jou in net so ‘n moeilike posisie plaas om weer jou besigheid aan die gang te kry.

    Of veronderstel jy gaan self dood, dan is JOU spesialiskennis daarmee heen, wat ‘n ewe groot impak op ekonomiese herstel gaan hê. Maar dit gaan nie net jy wees nie, honderde ander ouens wat die ekonomie dryf gaan ook in die slag bly, met ‘n helse “knock on” effek wat ekonomiese herstel gaan belemmer.

    So, die punt is, ekonomiese inkrimping is ‘n gegewe, maar ekonomiese herstel gaan bepaal word oor wie en watter van die menslike kapitaal gaan beskikbaar wees om herstel te bewerkstellig.

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