@BrotherBear: Agree, quality in numbers are key, nowadays you need at least 2 proper players in each position to stay competitive throughout the season.
@Beet: I fully agree with the 3rd party comments you posted. “Small” or “large” in numbers mean nothing (at first) when the schools are attracting good talent. As far as I know, that happens at all the competitive schools. To have quality players in numbers do pose a problem when injuries happen (as you said), especially for small schools. How full the season’s program is, who the opponents are, and some un/luck, impacts the injury list.
I agree with your anonymous friend. The ability to attract better players will always be more important than the numer of player in regards to A teams.
Another opinion I received in response to rugby achievement vs the number of boys a school had, was from a parent who was proud of his school’s diversity, saying yes they are big and expectations are high but mentioning that in addition to being competitive in rugby, they offered kids genuine opportunities to excel at non-mainstream sports particularly the individual sports examples being tennis and cycling. He felt that in the pursuit of rugby and/or hockey excellence, those kinds of meaningful alternatives are not given strong enough weighting in analysing the big picture. He topped it off by mentioning the high academic standard that his son’s school maintained as well, something he felt rivals struggled to match.
@beet: Offline I received an interesting alternative opinion to mine.
This is it:
Hi Beet
Hope you are well.
Just something I picked up on the relationship between the number of boys in a school and the strength of the school’s rugby.
There can be no relationship between the two.
The law of large numbers tells us 2 things. The first is the larger the sample, the closer will the results emulate that of the whole population.
The second is in terms of probability theory which tells you that if you repeat the same experiment over and over and over (thus the larger the number of experiments) with different samples, the closer you will get to the theoretical answer.
An example, although the Impala outnumbers the lion, it will still not be the strongest animal in the Kruger.
Also, even the number of rugby playing boys is not a good predictor of strength (albeit a better predictor than number of boys). It can at best tell you the number of teams you can put on the field.
Good predictors of strength would be the ability to attract good players, whether a long standing strong rugby culture exists or not, the comparative coaching strength, and nowadays the number of bursaries. The above apply to A teams only.
When you move to the lower teams and number of teams on the field, then the number of rugby playing boys would become an additional predictor – but never the number of boys.
The reasoning by some bloggers based on number of boys over the last 5 years or so is just so far off.
@Quagga: Agreed. Definitely. I must add that from an access to rugby information angle, I find there are schools with staff and coaches that are very enthusiastic and willing to assist which at the end of the day makes a difference.
@beet: SBR is not only for the elite few so-called rugby schools but for every school out there playing the game of rugby at their level. That said, obviously the upper tiers and top performers get more interest and exposure due to the quality of their game, but it would be nice to read from other schools as well from time to time.
@Strepie: @Die Ken: There are going to be quite a few valid points to support your stances however I don’t think one can overlook the law of large numbers. When you have more boys, you may not necessarily have more players or teams but you do generally have a benefit of having more choices and the further down you go into the lower teams, the more evident this tends to become. So while the A-teams are reasonably well matched, the gap between the B-teams is a bit wider and the C-teams even more etc etc. So when those injuries hit, the smaller school is usually more challenged to plug the gaps with palyers who meets the standard and sometimes there is even a balancing act decision to be made between talent and specialisation – eg you move your flank to hooker and hooker to prop to mask a weakness due to lack of ability amongst B-team players – I know this happens to an extent with bigger schools as well but I’m convinced the bigger you get the better your options become. When you have 600 boys chances are you will have twice as many nice sized frontrow players as the 300 boys school and lets face it not too many of those boys are weighing up their options to play hockey instead.
Interestingly Kingswood identified the need to offer boys hockey a while back and now play boys hockey on Thursday evenings, which allows dual sportsmen to be involved in rugby on the Saturday – I think a few are even 1st team for both sports.
@Quagga: Good news. They have kind of become a surprise package of sorts. A few years back, prior to the innovations that Virsekerbeker organisers have brought about, when the prospect of a Vaal superliga was discussed, the names of schools like Marais Viljoen and even Noordheuwel were not factored in. Yet here we are in 2020 with them up there competing in the NV premier division while previously more fancied schools like Nelspruit and Eldoraigne are one level down.
@Beet: Driving past Marais Viljoen this morning, on my way to the catch net, I saw the rugby players hard at work on the rugby field, which is commendable. Such a pity their results in recent years don’t reflect it. If I have one hope for this upcoming season its that this once proud force in Jozi rugby will rise this year to be notable contenders in the Virseker Beker and not just the whipping boys everyone expects. Keep up the good work Marais Viljoen!
@Palma: Palma sadly i would not do the o/14 rugby days this year. My o/14 son choose to play hockey this year. Why i dont know. He is a massive boy and looked like a g12 between the g8’s, but i will support him…. lol. I realy dont understand or like hockey.
@beet:Dont joke Beet. I know all the boys there. I think Oakdale will have a brilliant team this year. They will punch why above their weight his year. Top 10 finish for them.
@beet: If it was ranked according to rugby-playing boys then EG, HM and Donkies could be better contenders for “punching above their weight” than the Landbou schools?
@beet: With only 250 boys from grade 8 to 12,is there a school that takes boxing above their weight class more to the extreme than Marlow,those kids are tough as nails….watch out for Yanga Dinga and the Odendaal twinns this year….
@PaarlBok: was geensins anders bedoel as vriendskaplik nie,as ek jou eers begin duuuuuude noem moet jy weet jou vlieg in jou moear is nie ver weg nie???
@Beet: thanks for the trouble and @BoishaaiPa’s database. Quite interesting that eight schools in the 5-year top twenty moved quite a bit from lower positions on the longer term. These are: Selborne, Helpmekaar, Boland Landbou, Garsfontein, Welkom Gim, Stellenberg, Hilton and Rondebosch
@Strepie: pel boishaai se kids kom van oor die hele land,selde as Grey,Gim,PRG, Selborne,Affies,en,en,en sodra jy n sterk old boy netwerk het gaan jou net baie wyd gespan wees
@Strepie: Without BoishaaiPa’s data as the platform, these listing would not have gotten off the ground, so he does deserve a big thank you, but agreed he cannot be held accountable for the “anomalies”
I tried for a “punch above their weight” listing but could not arrive at a satisfactory formula. 4 schools are noteworthy:
Always complimented for their competitiveness – Boland Landbou
Perhaps not as much attention drawn to their relatively small per capita but definitely deserving of praise for their achievements – Oakdale.
Then another agricultural orientated school from Craddock who have very few boys – Marlow
And from the same region a very small co-ed English medium Methodist private in Grahamstown – Kingswood.
@Gatskop: You’re welcome. I must sort out your avatar. Perhaps settle for the colors of something somewhere between George and Paarl, maybe Riversdale???
@Palma: Palma i am not sure about Boishaai 0/14 this year. Havent seen them practice yet. My focus there is more o/19. At Outeniqua i can tell you to expect a realy strong o/14 team. They have big players upfront and very very fast backs. I think Outeniqua will be top 3 this year with their o/14 team.
@Knight_CHS07: I agree with you. It seems that Grey had the most points in the E Cape in 2017. In Grey’s favour is their more difficult fixture list and their notable win over Paul Roos; however, they suffered four losses compared to the two of SAC…plus one of the losses was a 63 point hiding against GCB, who were not ranked #1 in 2017. Also, SAC beat Grey that year. Like you, my vote, on the eye-ball test basis, goes to SAC in 2017.
@Beet: I find it hard to believe that the SAC 2017 1st XV didn’t make that EC Team of the decade. They lost two games that season, to SACS and arch rivals Bishops.
Elke jaar n boujaar vir Garsies met die delayed options . Ha ha ek spot maar wat ook al vir die skool werk moet hulle seker aanwend . Ek hoor maar dat daar heelwat nuwe huursoldate aangekom het by die bere. So die bou jaar praatjies gaan nie veel ouens bluff nie.
As mens na die matriek groepe se ouderdomsjare kyk was dit Paarl Gim en Outeniqua wat elke jaar top 2 geindig het , maar daai kan ook beslis nie as maatstaf gebruik word nie.
@BrotherBear: I can probably work that out tonight.
BHP has supplied rankings for 2010 and 2011 so the table will be expanded by two columns and it may cause a reshuffle of a few possies. It definitely won’t benefit Helpies.
Some coEd schools are doing great work to keep their boys and maintain good rugby programs. The wake up call Garies got from Waterkloof a few years ago helped them immensely.
@Beet: how would this table look if only the past 5 years are used? Seems some up and coming schools are seriously disadvantaged by their “black marks” in early years.
@BrotherBear: Agree, quality in numbers are key, nowadays you need at least 2 proper players in each position to stay competitive throughout the season.
@Beet: I fully agree with the 3rd party comments you posted. “Small” or “large” in numbers mean nothing (at first) when the schools are attracting good talent. As far as I know, that happens at all the competitive schools. To have quality players in numbers do pose a problem when injuries happen (as you said), especially for small schools. How full the season’s program is, who the opponents are, and some un/luck, impacts the injury list.
I agree with your anonymous friend. The ability to attract better players will always be more important than the numer of player in regards to A teams.
Another opinion I received in response to rugby achievement vs the number of boys a school had, was from a parent who was proud of his school’s diversity, saying yes they are big and expectations are high but mentioning that in addition to being competitive in rugby, they offered kids genuine opportunities to excel at non-mainstream sports particularly the individual sports examples being tennis and cycling. He felt that in the pursuit of rugby and/or hockey excellence, those kinds of meaningful alternatives are not given strong enough weighting in analysing the big picture. He topped it off by mentioning the high academic standard that his son’s school maintained as well, something he felt rivals struggled to match.
@beet: Offline I received an interesting alternative opinion to mine.
This is it:
Hi Beet
Hope you are well.
Just something I picked up on the relationship between the number of boys in a school and the strength of the school’s rugby.
There can be no relationship between the two.
The law of large numbers tells us 2 things. The first is the larger the sample, the closer will the results emulate that of the whole population.
The second is in terms of probability theory which tells you that if you repeat the same experiment over and over and over (thus the larger the number of experiments) with different samples, the closer you will get to the theoretical answer.
An example, although the Impala outnumbers the lion, it will still not be the strongest animal in the Kruger.
Also, even the number of rugby playing boys is not a good predictor of strength (albeit a better predictor than number of boys). It can at best tell you the number of teams you can put on the field.
Good predictors of strength would be the ability to attract good players, whether a long standing strong rugby culture exists or not, the comparative coaching strength, and nowadays the number of bursaries. The above apply to A teams only.
When you move to the lower teams and number of teams on the field, then the number of rugby playing boys would become an additional predictor – but never the number of boys.
The reasoning by some bloggers based on number of boys over the last 5 years or so is just so far off.
@tzavosky: I looked at the list to see who would even qualify as competition for Ben Vorster in that category.
Tzaneen’s population is in the region of 15000 and its really nowhere near any major towns.
As others on such a list, all I could think of was Upington, Duineveld and Landboudal.
@beet: I’ll stick my neck out: School with the highest past 5 years ranking AND the leanest hinterland: Ben Vorster!
@Quagga: Agreed. Definitely. I must add that from an access to rugby information angle, I find there are schools with staff and coaches that are very enthusiastic and willing to assist which at the end of the day makes a difference.
@beet: SBR is not only for the elite few so-called rugby schools but for every school out there playing the game of rugby at their level. That said, obviously the upper tiers and top performers get more interest and exposure due to the quality of their game, but it would be nice to read from other schools as well from time to time.
@Strepie: @Die Ken: There are going to be quite a few valid points to support your stances however I don’t think one can overlook the law of large numbers. When you have more boys, you may not necessarily have more players or teams but you do generally have a benefit of having more choices and the further down you go into the lower teams, the more evident this tends to become. So while the A-teams are reasonably well matched, the gap between the B-teams is a bit wider and the C-teams even more etc etc. So when those injuries hit, the smaller school is usually more challenged to plug the gaps with palyers who meets the standard and sometimes there is even a balancing act decision to be made between talent and specialisation – eg you move your flank to hooker and hooker to prop to mask a weakness due to lack of ability amongst B-team players – I know this happens to an extent with bigger schools as well but I’m convinced the bigger you get the better your options become. When you have 600 boys chances are you will have twice as many nice sized frontrow players as the 300 boys school and lets face it not too many of those boys are weighing up their options to play hockey instead.
Interestingly Kingswood identified the need to offer boys hockey a while back and now play boys hockey on Thursday evenings, which allows dual sportsmen to be involved in rugby on the Saturday – I think a few are even 1st team for both sports.
@Quagga: Good news. They have kind of become a surprise package of sorts. A few years back, prior to the innovations that Virsekerbeker organisers have brought about, when the prospect of a Vaal superliga was discussed, the names of schools like Marais Viljoen and even Noordheuwel were not factored in. Yet here we are in 2020 with them up there competing in the NV premier division while previously more fancied schools like Nelspruit and Eldoraigne are one level down.
@Die Ken: This sounds like a very reasonable request, so I will work on it.
@Die Ken: Paarl Gim met 550 seuns (en n groot hoeveelhied speel hokkie ook), maak daardie som. Niemand kom naby hulle nie.
@Beet: Driving past Marais Viljoen this morning, on my way to the catch net, I saw the rugby players hard at work on the rugby field, which is commendable. Such a pity their results in recent years don’t reflect it. If I have one hope for this upcoming season its that this once proud force in Jozi rugby will rise this year to be notable contenders in the Virseker Beker and not just the whipping boys everyone expects. Keep up the good work Marais Viljoen!
@Die Ken: Marlow se hele skool van gr 8 tot 12 is maar 250 leerlinge ,gee jou 50 per graad nie eers behoorlik 2 volle spanne per ouderdoms groep nie
@Palma: Palma sadly i would not do the o/14 rugby days this year. My o/14 son choose to play hockey this year. Why i dont know. He is a massive boy and looked like a g12 between the g8’s, but i will support him…. lol. I realy dont understand or like hockey.
@beet:Dont joke Beet. I know all the boys there. I think Oakdale will have a brilliant team this year. They will punch why above their weight his year. Top 10 finish for them.
@beet: If it was ranked according to rugby-playing boys then EG, HM and Donkies could be better contenders for “punching above their weight” than the Landbou schools?
@Beet: Can you please do the decade, but leave out 2018, 2013 and 2012 so that it suits my team
@Gatskop: Looking forward to seeing Outeniqua sides at the Graeme rugby day. It is going to be a real treat playing you guys.
@beet: With only 250 boys from grade 8 to 12,is there a school that takes boxing above their weight class more to the extreme than Marlow,those kids are tough as nails….watch out for Yanga Dinga and the Odendaal twinns this year….
@PaarlBok: was geensins anders bedoel as vriendskaplik nie,as ek jou eers begin duuuuuude noem moet jy weet jou vlieg in jou moear is nie ver weg nie???
@PaarlBok: Jy is reg. @Smallies se toon het neerhalend voorgekom. Als vergete, kom ons beweeg aan
@Beet: thanks for the trouble and @BoishaaiPa’s database. Quite interesting that eight schools in the 5-year top twenty moved quite a bit from lower positions on the longer term. These are: Selborne, Helpmekaar, Boland Landbou, Garsfontein, Welkom Gim, Stellenberg, Hilton and Rondebosch
@Smallies: Strepies is ons almal se pel.
@Strepie: Is ons nie pelle hier op die blog nie ….
@Smallies: Vol bek so vroeg in die jaar..
@Beet: Thanks Beet. Helluva job.
@beet: Unbelievable! I would have placed them at 6th, ahead of the Selborne 2016 team.
@Strepie: jy…..
@Smallies: Wie is jou ‘Pel’…
@Strepie: pel boishaai se kids kom van oor die hele land,selde as Grey,Gim,PRG, Selborne,Affies,en,en,en sodra jy n sterk old boy netwerk het gaan jou net baie wyd gespan wees
@Strepie: Without BoishaaiPa’s data as the platform, these listing would not have gotten off the ground, so he does deserve a big thank you, but agreed he cannot be held accountable for the “anomalies”
I tried for a “punch above their weight” listing but could not arrive at a satisfactory formula. 4 schools are noteworthy:
Always complimented for their competitiveness – Boland Landbou
Perhaps not as much attention drawn to their relatively small per capita but definitely deserving of praise for their achievements – Oakdale.
Then another agricultural orientated school from Craddock who have very few boys – Marlow
And from the same region a very small co-ed English medium Methodist private in Grahamstown – Kingswood.
@Gatskop: HJS u14 will be strong-very biG forwards
only having trials in MARCH-30 30 plus cweek players
@Gatskop: You’re welcome. I must sort out your avatar. Perhaps settle for the colors of something somewhere between George and Paarl, maybe Riversdale???
@Knight_CHS07: Surprisingly SAC 2017 is only 20th
@Rainier: The Free State list might come as a shock to the system of everyone who follows SBR closely so I focused on the central region instead –
@Beet: Thanks for all the stats.
@Palma: Palma i am not sure about Boishaai 0/14 this year. Havent seen them practice yet. My focus there is more o/19. At Outeniqua i can tell you to expect a realy strong o/14 team. They have big players upfront and very very fast backs. I think Outeniqua will be top 3 this year with their o/14 team.
@Rainier: Majority from local schools, or schools a mere 40km down the N1, 60km along the N2 (Helderberg). Same province at least
@Vleis: SAC also beat Selborne who beat GCB the week before playing them (SAC).
@Strepie: As opposed to Boishaai whose children exclusively come from Paarl and Klapmuts.
@Vleis: I dont think these stats come from BoishaaiPa, hence the anomalies.
@Knight_CHS07: I agree with you. It seems that Grey had the most points in the E Cape in 2017. In Grey’s favour is their more difficult fixture list and their notable win over Paul Roos; however, they suffered four losses compared to the two of SAC…plus one of the losses was a 63 point hiding against GCB, who were not ranked #1 in 2017. Also, SAC beat Grey that year. Like you, my vote, on the eye-ball test basis, goes to SAC in 2017.
@Beet: I find it hard to believe that the SAC 2017 1st XV didn’t make that EC Team of the decade. They lost two games that season, to SACS and arch rivals Bishops.
@Rainier: It is because most of the prominent Free State school teams’ players come from the Eastern Cape
@Strepie: Gaan nie oornag gebeur nie. Sou nie wonderwerke vanjaar verwag nie.
No Freestate Top 10 teams?
Ek verwag dat Paul Roos hierdie rekord sal regstel met die strukture wat nou in plek is.
Some other rankings
@BrotherBear:
Elke jaar n boujaar vir Garsies met die delayed options . Ha ha ek spot maar wat ook al vir die skool werk moet hulle seker aanwend . Ek hoor maar dat daar heelwat nuwe huursoldate aangekom het by die bere. So die bou jaar praatjies gaan nie veel ouens bluff nie.
As mens na die matriek groepe se ouderdomsjare kyk was dit Paarl Gim en Outeniqua wat elke jaar top 2 geindig het , maar daai kan ook beslis nie as maatstaf gebruik word nie.
Sien uit na n fantastiese jaar van skole rugby .
@BrotherBear: I can probably work that out tonight.
BHP has supplied rankings for 2010 and 2011 so the table will be expanded by two columns and it may cause a reshuffle of a few possies. It definitely won’t benefit Helpies.
Some coEd schools are doing great work to keep their boys and maintain good rugby programs. The wake up call Garies got from Waterkloof a few years ago helped them immensely.
@Beet: how would this table look if only the past 5 years are used? Seems some up and coming schools are seriously disadvantaged by their “black marks” in early years.
@Gatskop: Any idea how your /14a will be this year?
Vir my is die vraag of Grey dit 3 in n ry gaan maak en wie die res van die top 10 gaan maak.
Gim is na bewering saam die kwaggas verby wild die jaar en kan verras saam Affies as dark horses om Grey aan te vat vir nr 1.
Bou jaar vir Garsies en verstaan die aim is top 20.Die Bere speel Gim en die Kwaggas op NS so die seisoen kan nie taaier begin nie.
Top 5 vanjaar.
Affies
GREY
Outeniqua
Paarl Gim
Paarl Boys High
In geen spesifieke volgorde nie.