This is an exercise to determine which school has the hardest Easter Festival fixture list based on the historical ranking information made available via the BHP formula driven ranking system for 2009 to 2013 combined (link here : BHP Top 75 2009-2013).
Since Northwood were ranked 75th with a points score of 0.77, all schools participating in Easter Festivals, ranked below 75 were allocated a points score of 0.75 each, with an exception made for Australia’s Scot’s College, who are scored at 2.00 (25th highest) due to the hype they have managed to create.
Ideally this model should be based on 2014 form, but with the season being young so it’s still difficult to say where all the schools fit into the big picture in terms of national rankings. So based on next week’s first proper BHP for 2014, recalculations will be performed and posted.
| # | BHP# | SCHOOL | FESTIVAL | DIFF RATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Monument | Kearsney | 9.41 |
| 2 | 17 | EG Jansen | Kearsney | 8.63 |
| 3 | 18 | Westville | Kearsney | 7.85 |
| 4 | 19 | Selborne | Kearsney | 7.62 |
| 5 | 37 | Framesby | Kearsney | 7.53 |
| 6 | 29 | HTS Middelburg | Kearsney | 7.43 |
| 7 | 39 | Pretoria BH | St John’s | 7.39 |
| 8 | 1 | Grey College | Kearsney | 7.33 |
| 9 | 2 | Affies | Kearsney | 7.07 |
| 10 | 26 | Rondebosch | KES | 6.87 |
| 11 | 40 | Dale | Kearsney | 6.27 |
| 12 | 21 | Kearsney | Kearsney | 5.95 |
| 13 | 45 | Nico Malan | Kearsney | 5.92 |
| 14 | 11 | Glenwood | Kearsney | 5.78 |
| 15 | 31 | Nelspruit | St John’s | 5.53 |
| 16 | 5 | Paul Roos | St John’s | 5.53 |
| 17 | 74 | Parktown | KES | 5.27 |
| 18 | 38 | Menlopark | KES | 5.13 |
| 19 | 75 | Northwood | KES | 5.13 |
| 20 | 32 | Marlow | KES | 5.07 |
| 21 | – | St Charles | St John’s | 5.03 |
| 22 | 43 | Hilton | St Stithians | 4.92 |
| 23 | 10 | KES | KES | 4.79 |
| 24 | – | Noordheuwel | St John’s | 4.74 |
| 25 | 27 | Maritzburg College | St Stithians | 4.71 |
| 26 | 66 | Jeppe | St John’s | 4.70 |
| 27 | 73 | St John’s | St John’s | 4.69 |
| 28 | – | Linden | St Stithians | 4.64 |
| 29 | 12 | Grey HS | KES | 4.59 |
| 30 | 62 | Helpmekaar | St Stithians | 4.52 |
| 31 | 24 | St Andrew’s | St Stithians | 4.20 |
| 32 | 8 | Waterkloof | St John’s | 4.19 |
| 33 | – | Klein Nederburg | St John’s | 4.09 |
| 34 | 65 | St Stithians | St Stithians | 4.08 |
| 35 | 30 | Queen’s | KES | 4.05 |
| 36 | 44 | SACS | St Stithians | 4.05 |
| 37 | – | Hentie Cilliers | KES | 4.00 |
| 38 | – | St John’s (Harare) | St John’s | 3.94 |
| 39 | – | St Benedict’s | St Stithians | 3.82 |
| 40 | 23 | Wynberg | St Stithians | 3.75 |
| 41 | – | Scots College (Aus) | St John’s | 3.74 |
| 42 | 61 | Eldoraigne | KES | 3.43 |
| 43 | 4 | HJS Paarl BH | St John’s | 3.41 |
| 44 | – | Windhoek | St Stithians | 2.66 |
| 45 | – | Trinityhouse | KES | 2.63 |
| 46 | 71 | Graeme | KES | 2.06 |
Some blogger from Maritzburrow asked about the programme for the Francois Swart U/15 tournament at Affies over easter. The programme is on the http://www.affiesrugby.co.za page. Interesting games tomorrow the Affies/Jansies and Helpies(IMHO a top class team)/Garsies clashes.
@Tang: I tried to reinvent the wheel here.
I gave all teams below Northwood (75th) the same rating of 0.75 and Scot’s College the benefit of 2.00 (about 25th).
So St John’s Harare = 0.75
@star: As much as I hate to admit it, I think you are probably spot on. Host schools look after themselves first, I don’t think there is any getting around this.
In 2013, Kearsney and Westville had two common fixtures – Framesby and Paarl Gim. The crucial difference was the 3rd game. Boland Landbou vs Outeniqua. Both WC schools were new at the festival.
According to BHPRS Outeniqua was 4th in 2012 and 8th overall,
Boland Landbou was 13th in 2012 and 20th overall.
Kearsney with one of the best teams ever should probably have taken on Outeniqua and Westville Boland Landbou.
Anyway lets see how this Easter weekend pans out and if the results help to improve justification for the various hosts fixtures setting
@Star – interesting analysis. In addition hosts have home ground advantage. If you added home field advantage, it would even get easier for the hosts.
I think there should be a further correlation between the difficulty ranking and the schools actual ranking. I will call it the Equity Index.
By dividing BHP’s ranking by the difficulty position you get the top 5 as follows:
EG Jansen 8.5
Framesby 7.4
Monument 7.0
Westville 6.0
PBHS 5.5
And for the hosts
St Johns 2.7
St Stithians 1.9
Kearsney 1.75
KES 0.43
It definitely shows that there are certain whipping boys in these tournaments and that the hosts sort themselves out properly
Actually this very question was raised last year by Westville supporters of the Kearsney dream team and seems to be of issue again with Westville playing both Grey and the highly rated Selbourne.
As Amalekite says the boys are keen to test themselves but there must be some context in an analysis of our performances.
@Beet – How do you account for the non South African teams in the analysis?
Gaan enige van die naweek se games op tv wees?
@Ploegskaar: Kyk oor die Bulspan in NZ steur ek my nie veel aan maar ek weet n gekweste bul……..is gevaarlik.
@Andre T: Mens moet maar versigtig wees om jou naam aan ‘n bul te koppel, Saterdag het twee Bul spanne in Gauteng verloor, een in Riversdal en een, soos gebruiklik, in NZ. Dalk maar vir die Paastydperk as die Witspan en die Wolspan bekendstaan.
@Andre T: Droom voort.
@Woltrui: Julle woltruitjies het groen, geel en rooi strepies.
Monnas is die oorspronklike Witbulle
@EC Guy: Not the way they played against Klerksdorp
Similar to last year for Westville, who were tasked with playing against Paarl Gim, Outeniqua and Framesby.
The previous year, they played Grey Bloem, E G Jansen and Dale.
Funnily enough, the boys don’t complain as they are keen to test themselves against these top schools.
Looking forward to some great rugby!
The school with the toughest fixtures is Affies. Playing Selbourne, HTS and Monnas. Don’t know to much of Selbourne’s style of play but the Middelburgers and the boitjies from the West Rand is the toughest mothers you can find on a schoolboy rugby field. These schools also, traditionally, get some extra voema when they take on the Wit Bulle from Pretoria. Is going to be tough.
Nice and interesting exercise, but totally useless if based on previous years’ rankings. The schools are not playing the previous years’ teams, but the 2014 teams.
Just one example: Wynberg should be ranked much higher this year than the no 23 position they are reflected at on the rankings based on previous years. Any team playing them should therefor get more credit. Teams playing Affies should get less, etc.
However, I understand that this is the best that can be done before the rankings for 2014 are out.
P.S. – Oops, I missed the last paragraph of the introduction which actually states this.
@EC Guy: i think you could be right,selborne were very lucky to sneak past Framesby the other day,are you going to kerf??
I think Framesby can cause a upset or two…..