How many schoolboys will go on to become Springboks?

Okay this is my new favourite example and is handy for anyone who wants to keep things simple. A bit of what I call FYUI – for your useless information.
We have about 100 or so top rugby schools in South Africa. Working on the assumption that two-thirds of the First XV are matrics and one-third grade-11 or lower, that gives 1000 players graduating high school every year. How many of those make it to play for the Boks one day?
Answer: 10.
Why?
Here’s the explanation:

The Springbok lock John Philip Botha or BAKKIES! as we all know him became Springbok number 733 under then coach Rudolph Straueli back in 2002. Apart from being a very good player, Bakkies kind of turned the rugby term “Enforcer” into a household word through his general style of play. Bakkies unofficially / officially retired from test rugby in 2011. There is however a new kid on the block who has taken over where Bakkies was supposed to have left off, if the former hadn’t been suspended or injured so much of the time. Measuring 2.03m and tipping the scales at 123kg, providing absolutely no evidence to support contrary opinion, it is just about fact that talented 21-year-old Eben Etzebeth is the new “Enforcer” in world rugby. Eben is a world class player in the making and has already beaten Bakkies to a first test cap by roughly two years in age difference, further underlining just how good this young lock is.  Etzebeth became Springbok number 833 under Heyneke Meyer in 2012.

So from time Bakkies Botha (#733) arrived on the international scene until Eben Etzebeth (#833) earned his first test start there have been exactly 100 Bok caps handed out in about 10 years or 10 new caps per year.

(If there is a mathematician or accountant or stats guru in the room, at the braai, on the golf course when you decide to share this FYUI, then rather go here for a more accurate figure: http://schoolboyrugby.co.za/blog/?p=1615)

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14 Comments

  1. avatar
    #14 Gungets Tuft

    @beet: Saw that. Wonder if there is substance to it or dirty tricks. The non-SA rugby fraternity would like nothing better than to stain him now, nice and early.

    Find it amazing that they picked that up but not the klap to the head that Jannie Doop picked up that concussed him. It was either a kneee or a fist, had him stumbling around like a drunk and effectively neutralised him for the game.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 21:14
  2. avatar
    #13 beet

    EISH! Etzebeth cited for alleged eye-gouging. He might becoming more like Bakkies than Boks fans want him to be.

    We want a good player not a dirty player.

    ReplyReply

    19 November, 2012 at 19:23
  3. avatar
    #12 Amalekite

    @BoishaaiPa: KZN. Yes, we do tend to have a shorter season. Now I understand why you guys are not represented at the annual junior club inter-provincial tournament – pity. This year it was hosted by the Valke. The other provinces that participated were Free State and the Blue Bulls.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 14:24
  4. avatar
    #11 BoishaaiPa

    @Amalekite: Dont know what province you are from, but in the WP the School season is longer than the club season, so I dont think they will be able to fit in any club rugby at all. Clubs also only begins at u/20 level with only a few that have junior sides to provide areas that have schools with no rugby as a sport as an alternative.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 13:56
  5. avatar
    #10 Andre T

    Moses se vir die Amelekiete…..steek weg julle tiete……hier is baie muskiete.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 13:55
  6. avatar
    #9 Amalekite

    I would encourage schoolboys to play club rugby, once the school season is over, for the following reasons:
    1. They will get to play with some of their previous opposition from other schools. This is important as they get to see that the ” enemy ” are actually no different to themselves.
    2. When they next play against their club mates at school level there is no animosity, although the competitiveness remains.
    3. The club experience is a lot more mature and they will get to experience different coaching methods.
    4. I also get the feeling that they generally get to express themselves more in terms of decision-making during play.I have seen some beautiful free-flowing rugby in te various age groups.
    5. Should they be selected for their region, they could play against other provinces, which is definitely a step up. This can only enhance their game furter.
    6. They will keep their fitness for longer, and when pre-season at school starts, it is far easier for them.
    7. If they go to some of the less recognised rugby schools, they will benefit even more, as they will be playing at a higher tempo with boys from the bigger schools.
    8. Some of the boys from the big rugby schools may not selected for their A team, for whatever reason, but they sometimes do very well at club level.
    9. It can only benefit our rugby in general, if our clubs are well supported and the level is high. This will, in turn, attract the better coaches and players to get involved.

    I am talking from my personal experience, having being a bit skeptical to start with. My first thought was that it was going to be too much rugby. I was wrong. I am quite amazed at how the guys that are truly passionate can come up with the goods week after week.
    Great friendships are formed and they are usually keen to play again the following year, which speaks for itself.
    On a final note, I would like to express my gratitude to all those involved: Club coaches, secretaries, chairman etc. These people give of themselves selflessly for the love of the game.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 13:26
  7. avatar
    #8 beet

    @BOG: Fortunately we are getting a little help. The salary cap, the min % homegrowns in French clubs and international players being paid far more than uncapped players is or has helped. A future situation like we have with soccer where many fans of the sport generally prefer watching the EPL with big name players and full stadiums.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 10:38
  8. avatar
    #7 BOG

    @beet: And a reality that cannot be denied, is the inevitable decline (moderately termed) of the SA Rand in the medium term.(5-6 yrs or sooner) This will make it even more attractive for SA players to go abroad and not only international players.I consider this to be the biggest threat to all forms of rugby in SA. Worst case scenario, is that we will only have the aspiring/hopefuls and the has beens left in SA. We are loosing far more young people than is generally acknowledged- as yet, just not the better known ones.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 10:09
  9. avatar
    #6 GHSdad

    @CyndiAtRugby: I agree with you, a school coach can also make or brake a boy`s career, in team selection or otherwise affecting the boy in such a way that he does not continue playing post school.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 10:02
  10. avatar
    #5 CyndiAtRugby

    @GHSdad: The coaches make a huge difference especially at school boy rugby because these coaches are often also teachers. I have also noticed that there is a trend to try different combinations even with successful teams. :roll:

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 08:36
  11. avatar
    #4 beet

    @GHSdad: I agree. Certainly a coach of a struggling team at any level is more inclined to change things up in order to find a winning formula.

    Fortunately the SA and the other 2 SANZAR nations are yet to be adversely effected by home-grown players representing NH nations. I think the best player has to have been Dan Vickerman and that was for Aus. Things could change tho. However in a different light we might view the recent departures of CJ Stander, Josh Strauss, Quinn Roux, Danie Poolman and WP Nel etc as no different from a professional in the business world changing jobs or perhaps even heading abroad to earn more money or find a better career path from themselves.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 08:34
  12. avatar
    #3 beet

    @Greenwood: That is a good point. A lot of people are going to point to the undeveloped skills training factor. IMHO another issue is that we do not have enough strength vs strength contests at u18 level. After school good players usually end up in one of 6 good provincial u19 teams (180 players at 30 per squad). If you look at the schools a number of kids come from its clear that they were not tested by SBR compo to the full extent. Perhaps a shorter SBR season and a longer provincial season would go a long way to leveling the playing fields with NZ by the time the JWC u20 rolls around for a set age-group.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 08:25
  13. avatar
    #2 Greenwood

    Mildly off the subject here OK so we have 100 Top
    rugby schools here in SA and it seems to be generally acknowledge we have best SBR in the world – so howcome the All Blacks with lesser SBR ruby numbers to draw from have the edge on the Boks

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 08:14
  14. avatar
    #1 GHSdad

    Very interesting stats but I think it is coach and team performance dependent as a team doing well will largely stay the same as a strugging team will change a bit to try and find the right combinations. it will be interesting to see how many youngsters with amazing prospects has left the country to apply their trade overseas as they see no future for them in this country.

    ReplyReply
    19 November, 2012 at 07:30