Ireland and the Springboks heading for a titanic clash
Rugby World Cup 2023, Week Three Predictions
By Kaya 85
It’s getting exciting. Can you hear the rumbling? That’s the sound of ten million
butterflies in the stomachs of Ireland and Springbok supporters. Mostly the Irish,
because they’re nervous, we’re excited. The result could realistically go either way.
Some experts are calling it for the Boks, others predict an Irish win. There are going
to be other very close games too, like Argentina vs Samoa and Wales vs Australia.
Here are my predictions:
Italy vs Uruguay
Uruguay showed they can play. They are here with the mindset to win. They
surprised France with a closely fought match last week. Expect more of the same
from them, but Italy should win even with their backup team.
Prediction: Italy 33 – 13 Uruguay
France vs Namibia
Namibia somehow avoided outright destruction (100 points) last week but emerged
battered, bruised and emotionally deflated. They will need to do dig very deep,
again, against a French team that will include at least a dozen well rested players
intent on upping their intensity.
Prediction: France 89 – 6 Namibia
Argentina vs Samoa
Argentina won’t want to be eliminated from the world cup after only two matches, but
Samoa have what it takes to do just that. There will be two red cards in this game.
Stakes are high for both. Samoa will emulate their Pacific neighbours Fiji in taking
down a Championship tier one power.
Prediction: Argentina 24 – 27 Samoa
Georgia vs Portugal
Exciting and evenly matched. Portugal play an attractive brand of rugby, running it
from all over but Georgia will feel confident they will win this one.
Prediction: Georgia 34 – 22 Portugal
Boks vs Ireland
A massive game. Hard to call because the Boks could win it by 15 or more, while
Ireland could also ignite and produce a victory. Let’s see if Marco or Deon can scrum
in the front row.
Prediction: Springboks 20 – 17 Ireland
Scotland vs Tonga
Tonga are no pushovers. If they up their work-rate they could stay in this game much
longer than when they wilted against Ireland. But if Scotland are really number 5 in
the world they should run away in the last 8 – 10 minutes.
Prediction: Scotland 36 – 18 Tonga
Wales vs Australia
Wales blew the Aussies away in the previous world cup. They were resilient against
Fiji and will be equally fire-up for this one, which is basically another ‘knock-out’
game. Wales still have to play Georgia, who beat them in Cardiff last year so they
need to take their chances.
Prediction: Wales 24 – 22 Wobblies
@Grizzly (Comment #25)
Jip, die Bokke het geSPEEL, maar so ook die Franse. As jy ooit in Londen is as die Bokke speel, gaan kyk by die Horse&Groom pub in Wimbledon – feitlik net Suid-Afrikaners, en jy kan selfs springbokkies bestel om te drink! Wat ‘n vibe!
@tzavosky (Comment #23)Gee nie om hierdie keer verkeerd te wees nie!Wat n game!Hoe goed is Pieter Steph??
@tzavosky (Comment #23) I think this QF vs France will be the defining match of the Jacques Nienaber era. If the Boks wins I feel that although there will be huge pressure to go and make it to the final, JN’s time in charge will be viewed in a positive light but if the Boks lose the QF, he will be frown upon as a coach who underachieved.
@Grizzly : Soos gesê, ons sal moet SPEEL. Ek dink nie Fr het swak punte nie, hoewel my Walliese pêl reken hulle slotte is swak – spoed ipv brute krag. Ons beste kans is dat hulle oorweldig word deur die verwagting van die tuisskare.
@tzavosky : Hoop eks verkeerd,maar as ons uit is en die AB wen dan moet ek n swart trui gaan koop.
Hoe wen ons die Franse?Ons gaan dit nie met ons scrum doen nie,nie met ons lostrio nie(afbreek punte).Wats hul swak punt?
Miskien met ons verdediging?
@Grizzly Man, ek aanvaar mos nie sommer net so dat ons gaan verloor nie, maar ons sal moet SPEEL om te wen. Dit gesê, dit bly sleg van hierdie RWB dat die halfeindstryde voor die kwarteindstryde gespeel word! Maar dit is wat dit is. Sal Sondagaand die wedstryd in ‘n pub in Wimbledon volg saam met verskeie Suid-Afrikaners.
SA uit na Sondag,geen manier hoe ons n goeie Franse span plus die ref en oficials tuis gaan wen nie.
Op n neutral veld met regverdige ref dink ek SA is 10 punte beter.
@tzavosky: The first tie-breaker is head to head, then best points difference, then the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded, then most points scored and then most tries scored.
I’m flying back from Amsterdam on Saturday, but it’s a day flight, so I’ll land at about 9.30pm – I hope to see Ireland ahead in a low scoring game when I find a TV at CT airport!
@Vleis: The first tie breaker is point difference, which rules Ireland out of 1st place in your scenario. The next tie breaker is the head to head result, which rules Scotland out of 1st place then.
At least, that’s how I understand it.
(I’m on a plane to London at the time of the match, so I’ll probably only know by Sunday morning.)
@tzavosky: I’m only talking about the scenario where SA could exit – i.e. Scotland get 5 points and Ireland get 1 point. In such a scenario, all three teams would’ve beaten each other once, so the next tie-breaker is point differences, where Scotland and SA would be the same if Scotland win by 20. So, the next tie breaker is net try difference, where Scotland would need to improve by three to topple SA…and if they beat Ireland by 20, it’s very likely that they will improve their net try differential by three…so I think we should consider 20 to be the key number.
@Vleis: No, as it stands the points difference between Scotland(97) and SA(117) is 20, so they should beat Ireland by 21 points or more. If they score 20 more than Ireland, the points difference will be equal, then the head to head between the two teams come into play.
@Cappie: @tzavosky: Correct, but as I mentioned below, the key number is really 20 – i.e. SA will be out if Scotland beats Ireland by more than 19…and gets five points to Ireland’s one point.
Hier is hoe ek dit het:
Al hoe Suid Afrika nog kan uitval is as Skotland vir Ierland met meer as 20 punte wen en vier drieë druk, terwyl Ierland dan ook vier drieë moet druk vir ‘n bonuspunt. Sodoende sal Skotland, Ierland en Suid Afrika op 15 punte eindig. Aangesien al drie op 15 is en elkeen een ander gewen het, kyk hulle wie die grootste punteverskil het. Dit sal dan Skotland wees, met Suid Afrika tweede in punteverskil. Die punteverskil is egter nie genoeg om Suid Afrika deur te sit in die tweede plek nie, aangesien in terme van die kriteria wat gebruik word om die hoogste posisie te bepaal is om te kyk watter span het gewen in die groepfases tussen mekaar. In die geval is dit Ierland, en sal Ierland dus in die tweede plek geplaas word en Suid Afrika sodoende uitskakel.
Daar is ook ‘n paar ander scenario’s wat in Groep 2 kan gebeur na aanleiding van die Ierland-Skotland wedstryd:
Ierland wen Skotland: Ierland eindig eerste en Suid Afrika tweede
Skotland wen Ierland met meer as sewe punte en daar is geen bonuspunte nie: Suid Afrika (15) eindig eerste en Skotland (14) tweede, aangesein hulle Ierland (14) gewen het in die groepfase
Skotland wen Ierland, maar Ierland kry ‘n bonuspunt vir of vier drieë of met minder as sewe punte verloor terwyl Skotland nie ‘n bonuspunt kry vir vier drieë nie: Ierland (15) eerste en Suid Afrika (15) tweede, aangesien Ierland vir Suid Afrika gewen het in die groepfase. Skotland (14) val uit.
Skotland wen Ierland met tussen sewe en 21 punte en beide kry ‘n bonuspunt vir vier drieë: Suid Afrika (15) eindig eerste met grootste punteverskil. Skotland (15) eindig tweede en Ierland (15) val uit omdat Skotland vir Ierland gewen het in die groepfase.
Skotland kan nog deurgaan as hulle net vir Ierland met meer as sewe punte wen en verhoed dat Ierland vier drieë druk of beide druk vier drieë terwyl Skotland met meer as sewe wen.
@Vleis: The rules say in case of a 3-way tie, they look at point difference for 1st place – so Scotland has to score 4 tries and beat Ireland by a 21 point margin or more to finish 1st.
For 2nd place they then look at who won between the remaining two tied teams, which in the above scenario is Ireland.
BUT Ireland will also have to score 4 tries for a 3-way tie, so you’re looking at a score of at least 41-20 for that to occur, which will be one hell of a feat.
@tzavosky: Correct, but only if Scotland ALSO beat Ireland by 21** or more…otherwise, we end up on top with the best points difference.
** if Scotland beat Ireland by 20 AND improve their net try difference by 3, they’ll be on top too. The latter is likely if they win by 20…so a 20 point win is probably the key number and not 21.
In every other scenario, we are through – e.g. Ireland win, or its a draw, or Scotland get 4 points, or Scotland get 5 points and Ireland get 0 or 2 points, or Scotland get 5 points and Ireland get 1 point, but Scotland win by less than 20.
@tzavosky: OK, weer gekyk, as Skotland 5 punte kry, en Ierland 1 bonuspunt, is die Bokke uit omdat die 2de plek bepaal word deur wie gewen het tussen die 2 spanne wat gelyk is.
@Kaya 85: 100% skoprekord teen Tonga vanaand.
Permutasie vir 1ste en 2de plek in GroepB:
Bokke: 15 log punte, 117 punteverskil
Ierland: 14 log punte, 122
Skotland: 10 log punte, 97
Ierland moet net Skotland wen om 1ste te eindig, met Bokke dan 2de.
As Skotland 4 drieë druk eindig hulle op 15 punte, maar moet met 20 plus punte wen om bo Bokke te wees op punteverskil, in watter geval Ierland 3de sal wees (punteverskil 102 of minder) selfs al druk Ierland ook 4 drieë.
Jammer Bokke…maar julle MOET daai skoppe oorsit
@Smallies: that would be so funny… + I’m also hoping Italy has their best ever game v the AB
@tzavosky: hier is n interresante permutation, sou Ierland verloor teen ons ,kan hulle geestelik so gekondem wees dat Skotland hulle dalk net kan klop en dump uit die WB uit ….
@Kaya 85: There is more than one permutation in my scenario – if it’s a 3-way tie for 1st in the pool, I think it comes down to points difference to decide who are no’s 1 and 2, with everything else being equal. ireland may well end up no1 and Scotland no2 then.
So the only remaining question (from an Ireland point of view) is who would they want to play in the final (assuming that the other side of the draw is completely eliminated in the semi’s). I think for them it’s the same risk. I don’t think they fancy playing SA in a final.
But, yes, it’s t-i-c.
@tzavosky: big risk to play France at home in QF…
U less comment I’d tongue in cheek
@Smallies: Dis hulle plan – wen die Bokke, verloor groot teen Skotland, wen Fr in kwarteindstryd, cruise deur die semi’s en wen NZ in die finaal.
@Smallies: good point…
Ierland speel basies hulle derde game un drie weke met n baie sterk span…..hoe vars is dasi spelers nog…
Italy, France, Argentina, Georgia, Springboks, Scotland, Australia!