With a few of the big guns having left the Kearsney in recent years, there is a strong argument to suggest that St John’s now has the strongest line-up of participating teams especially when one considers that Affies, Monument, Paarl Boys High and Paul Roos will all be in action there. However an analysis reveals that although it’s evident that Kearsney has been weakened by the recent departures of powerhouses Grey College and Affies, as an overall festival from top rated team to bottom rated one, it will still have the strongest line-up in 2016 by quite a margin with St John’s moving into second, St Stithians third and KES falling back to fourth.
During the last five years ending in 2015, Kearsney had positioned itself by attracting the top ranked schools and as a result has easily come out on top in terms of strength while a close contest between the three Johannesburg schools has seen KES edging out St John’s and St Stithians. Significantly while Kearsney has weakened a little in 2016 compared to it’s 5-year average up to 2015, all three Joburg festivals will be stronger in 2016 than their preceding 5-year averages. For St John’s and St Stithians, 2016 marks their strongest line-ups in all the years from 2011. The KES festival was stronger in 2014, while Kearsney peaked in 2012 with a festival that included Affies, Grey College, Monnas, Paarl Gim and Paul Roos.
The measurements above based on subjective criteria. Many people who attend festivals will agree that there is no evidence to suggest that stronger teams make for a better festival of on the field rugby. Since all four festivals organisers set their fixtures well in advance, of interest is who had got it right to produce the most competitive matches based on average points difference. Here the records are factual so it’s worth publishing:
Once again, it’s Kearsney who leads as an overall package with an average points difference of 18 points, which doesn’t exactly point to close games on the whole nevertheless the margins are better than those achieved by the three Johannesburg festivals. Kearsney’s best effort was in 2013 which saw the points difference at just 13 points per game on average. Typically St John’s is mismatch Thursday (Day 1) but they then seem to get it right after Day 1 producing the best combination of close results over next two days and interestingly that concept of one easy game, two hard games for the top rugby schools is becoming an attractive drawcard. KES got things wrong in 2013, which really messed up their average. In that year Garsfontein clocked up 295 points to 12 and the Golden Lions Invitational team was far too weak.
@Tang: Agree on your comments, seems we are scared to win, we would prefer to score and defend a lead. This mindset needs to change. For me the best attacking side I saw was the Outeniqua side of 2014 I think it was with Dewald Human at flyhalf, Warrick Gelant etc. I watched them play Grey Bloem at Kearsney when they beat Grey Bloem, absolutely awesome display from Human, he sliced Grey to pieces. Also Grey fullback EW Viljoen was immense too. Not sure why he has digressed so much. He looks a shadow of his former confident self even if he did make the SA Under20 side.
@Grasshopper – I have only watched Glenwood play on two occasions. I watched them at St John’s six or seven years back and last year when they played College at Kings Park. Glenwood were not small but certainly showed a keen attacking intent.
The 2013 Affies team is possibly the best attacking school team I have ever had the pleasure of watching. Their backline was super quick and they had a few forwards such as RG Snyman who could keep up with the pacy backs.
College always used to play attacking rugby. I have noticed over the last few years they now tend to play a more risk averse style. I recall College at St Stithians in the late 90’s. They ran and attacked from everywhere.
I have watched House play on a few occasions and they are also very keen to run the ball.
Westville are also keen to attack. At Boys High in 2014, they scored some fabulous tries.
I can’t comment on Kearsney and Hilton since I have only watched them play once at Easter Festivals.
I wonder why our national team opts for a risk averse approach when the bulk of the players selected come from schools who love to attack.
Grey Bloem are always attacking and the Paarl schools also like to give the ball some air.
I think Springbok coaches are under too much pressure and tend to take an approach which is risk averse.
@Tang: Yep, Bishops is known for it’s running rugby. KZN teams like to run it too. We cannot match the Gauteng schools in size. Liked SACS last year too
@BrotherBear
I must agree with you on the CT Southern Suburbs comment. Two things that strike me about this:
1) They play with far less fear than Gauteng Schools
2) They have played together since primary school so there is an intuitive understanding between them
@Grasshopper: Hehehe – fun to take the KES moms on as well….. Some ferocious supporters there.
What I personally enjoy about the traditional KZN and CT southern suburb rugby is the ability to attack from anywhere and beautiful running with skillfully hands. Something we dearly need in Springbok rugby.
@beet: ek moet my trui op n stadium verander
@Skoorsteen: En Sondag in Primrose
Sal Saterdag en Maandag by St Johns wees. Kan nie wag vir seisoen om te begin nie.
@BrotherBear: Last I looked St Stithians was in Bryanston, I drive past it everyday. No hoytie toytie, just like to wind up my KES blogger mates, they call Glenwood Scumbilo High so we repost with Hillbrow High for KES. Nope, we never played any decent Boere sides, just Port Natal, Voortrekker PMB and Gelofte, usually winning those contests quite easily.
@Grasshopper: and you would rather visit the dodgy downtown Randburg area? Do I detect a sniff of hoytie-toytie? Did you experienced a bit of thumping from the boere in your time ;-). Sorry, I forgot it is the boere in the Glenwood team doing the thumping these days.
@beet: Yep, certainly from a KZN perspective. Also, I’m not keen to drive down to the dodgy Hillbrow area
@Grasshopper: I think Saints will be a really good festival. Reminds me a lot of Grey PE’s fest when there is a decent Easter holiday to accommodate it
I’ll be at Saints supporting the KZN teams, go DHS, House, Clifton and Westville!!
@beet: Your argument re the “overall” quality only holds water for the exceptionally avid SBR supporters who arrive at 8.30am and watch every game without visiting the beer tent in between. I suspect that they are the minority – e.g. on Monday, most neutral fans attending the SJC Fest will have a long lazy brunch, or do their morning gym/run/ride, or sleep off a hangover, etc and then wander down to St John’s at midday to watch Monnas v Helpies, HJS v Nellies and PR v Affies.
By the way, there is quite a sizeable ex-Zimbo crowd in SA and they are always interested to see how the Zim schools do in these festivals, so there will definitely be some interest in the St John’s (Harare) games. That said, I do agree that there is little interest in the Lions XV and Viadana. I much prefer it when they get a top Aussie/Pom/NZ school out as I like to compare our SBR teams to the SBR teams from our rugby rival countries.
@Rugger fan: Not disagreeing with you regarding the exciting games. However, the likes of Paul Roos vs Affies, Paarl Boishaai vs Nelspruit, Paul Roos vs Monnas, Paarl Boishaai vs. Helpmekaar, Affies vs Nelspruit and the Northerns derby between Monnas and Helpmekaar, creates huge interest from around the country.
These schools, with the exeption of ,Helpmekaar, who according to some knowledgable rugby people have a cracking team this year, have been amongst the top rugby schools for a number of years. One doubt therefore if these match ups will be one sided.
@Kattes-Strofes: I don’t disagree with some of what you said. The fixtures between the big guns is the exact reason why I went to St John’s last year and plan to go again this year.
However I disagree with your opinion on neutrals being more interested in the results of the festival (as a whole) where the big guns are. The results of games played by Viadana, St John’s Harare and the Lions XV will be of very little interest to most neutrals.
So yes St John’s will have the best top end fixtures but possibly not the best overall fixtures as you suggest, considering that they are going to be some very one sided games.
The analysis above which really was not intended to be based on opinion but on some quantifiable criteria (remembering there are a whole lot of other non-rugby related things that make a festival successful), set out to measure all games at the festivals and not just a few of them.
@Kattes-Strofes: I dont see beets post as one pointing out the “best” tournament. But as a neutral – I’d rather go and watch 6 exciting games that can all be decided in the dying minutes – than some of the top schools all winning by large margins. I think this is a spectator driven metric – and shows that the organisers seem to have gotten similar matched schools – agreeing that many of the top schools in any given year are on show at the various festivals.
Beet, sorry but I cannot agree with this oppinion. The schoolboy rugby lovers, and here I am talking about the neutrals, and not supporters who have links to a school, will be far more interested in the results of matches at festivals ,where the so called ‘big boys’ are playing each other.
Kearsney had the best fixtures last year, but sorry to say, St. Johns is this year the top dogs, as far as matches concerns, which will cause interest country wide.
This is just a personal oppinion.