Coronavirus puts schoolboy rugby festivals on ice

South African State President’s decree

Social distancing measures include:

Gathering of more than 100 people prohibited.

Celebrations of large national days cancelled.

Schools will be closed from Wednesday, 18 March and closed until after Easter weekend. To compensate mid-year school holidays will be shortened by a week.

 

14 March 2020: The postponing of the Super Rugby season for the foreseeable is perhaps a precursor for schoolboy rugby in South Africa.

The Department of Basic Education has provided schools with guidelines:

Guidelines for Childcare Facilities and Schools – 11 March 2020.pdf

 

Tighter travel bans in New Zealand amidst growing fears over the spread of the Coronavirus sealed Super Rugby’s fate but it’s not necessarily going to play out in the same way or as suddenly in schoolboy rugby. It will come though. The preventing or discouraging of large gatherings is seen as an effective way to stop exposure to and the spread of the virus. The first part of the festival rugby season starts on Saturday 21 March 2020. If anyone is going to pull the plug, one would imagine it has to be done by Wednesday 18 March.

 

25 Feb 2020 – Coronavirus could derail part of the 2020 schoolboy rugby season

Events unfolding in Northern Italy this week where high profile professional soccer matches have been postponed in an effort to prevent the spread of the life threatening Coronavirus , is perhaps an early warning sign of a reality that South Africa will face in the coming weeks and months.

In organised communities, strict lockdown measures look like they are going to be the modus operandi to minimise the risk of the outbreak getting out of control.

One has to expect our local schools to monitor the situation very closely and act swiftly if need be. This serious approach could range from cancelling potential high attendance sports events to the extreme of  sending students home for a period of time.

The new deadly virus, which originated last year in the Hubei province in China, causes a respiratory disease called Covid-19.

78 Comments

  1. Think a team from Italy playing in the World Schools tournament at Affies might pose the biggest risk.
    However, of the approximately 83 000 infected people so far, only about 2 800 people died – a tragic phenomenon, I must add.
    Consider 77 000 tragic flu deaths this year already.
    Which disease holds the greatest risk for SBR?

    ReplyReply
  2. @Djou: You should not look at those figures in isolation, but rather what the known mortality rate is for the KNOWN cases.

    The medical world understand the epidemiology of seasonal flu quite well and the different strains for each flu season is predictable, unless the virus mutates which happened in 2009 with swine flu. Therefore the necessary precautions like an appropriate vaccine for those at risk is available.

    Also, almost everyone on earth has been exposed to the influenza virus before and carries some level of natural immunity. I always compare the 1918 Spanish Flu with other pandemics – that virus spread to every corner of the world, including the relatively isolated Pacific islands, at a time when air travel was not nearly as common as these days. How then? By migrating water birds like duck and geese.

    The 1918 Flu killed 50 million people world wide, when the world population was only 1.8 billion – compare that to our present almost 8 bn. The present mortality rate for influenza is less than 1%, but for COVID-19 it’s around 3% of KNOWN infected cases, but in Italy (with a much older population) it’s around 13%.

    The further problem in comparing is that no one presently have natural immunity against COVID-19, apart from those who contracted it and made a full recovery, so everyone is at risk. We don’t have enough infected people to make a direct figure comparison with influenza.

    Also, the issue is not about SBR, but the community at large. At this point the mortality rate for school going children is negligibly low, and many of them may even contract the virus without showing any symptoms. But there are many other people involved with SBR than just players, in fact it involves whole communities. That’s the real issue.

    ReplyReply
  3. Dit sal onverantwoordelik en selfsugtig wees om die Noord-Suid toernooi te laat voortgaan.

    ReplyReply
  4. @Strepie: Ek verskil van jou, geen rede om die toernooi af te stel nie. Dis net ‘n griep virus,die media ruk die ding uit verband uit. Praat gerus met jou dokter.

    ReplyReply
  5. @Wonder: Wie gaan pa staan indien die groen lig vir die aanbied van die toernooi direk veroorsaak dat iemand besmet word?

    Hier in Namibië is dit so vrek warm, Corona se m#%r!

    ReplyReply
  6. @Strepie: Boishaai are now part of the Affies 100 festival. You will have to issue the same unconditional statement about that festival going ahead as well.

    ReplyReply
  7. @Strepie: So moet almal nou heeldag by die huis bly? Kom ons sluit al die skole,kerke,winkels ens.As jy al ooit in jou lewe griep gehad het,het jy reeds nie corona gekry, die is slegs ‘n ander strain. Gaan lees op die WHO se website

    ReplyReply
  8. Elke bietjie help.
    Sport is beslis nie n noodsaaklikheid nie.
    Beperk die risikos, kanselleer onmiddelik.

    ReplyReply
  9. @Strepie: Geen probleem,solank as SSL dit stream. Ek is seker hier is ‘n dokter op die blog wat sy opinie kan gee. My graad 11 dogter gaan Vrydag op kerk kamp suidkus toe vir 7 dae. Die kerk het twee dokers se opinie gevra en die kort antwoord is dat dit veilig is om te gaan.

    ReplyReply
  10. @Strepie: Ek sien Namibië het ‘n verbod geplaas op alle openbare byeenkomste, en julle skole is van more af vir 2 weke gesluit.

    ReplyReply
  11. @tzavosky: Ja, dit is n helse teleurstelling vir veral die rugbyspelers, Windhoek hoër het nogals nie n slegte span vanjaar nie, so ja…

    My werk is van so aard dat ek dit van die huis af kan doen, ek hoop maar net ons kan nog SA toe vlieg, sal darem vir my seun in die Paarl wil gaan kuier en hoor of hy darem ok is met die Corona wat die wereld in rep en roer het.

    ReplyReply
  12. The president’s state of emergency decree is out. Schools close on 18 March 2020 and no gatherings of more than 100 people. I guess either the festivals will have to be played in empty grounds or they are off.

    ReplyReply
  13. @Wonder: Nope, just bring load shedding down from stages 3 and 4 to 2 and 1 and nothing on other days. Some relief but at a huge social and economic cost.

    ReplyReply
  14. @Wonder: Ja, ek is – en soos jy seker weet, die GP wat die eerste ou in Natal gediagnoseer het, moes ook in kwarantyn gaan – ongekontrolleerd het dit ‘n potensiële groot impak op ons praktyke en mediese/verpleegkundige dienste in die algemeen – in China is van die behandelende medici self dood. Soos een kollega vandag gesê het, ons is daai band wat aanhou speel het toe die Titanic gesink het.

    So, hoe teleurstellend dit ook al is, ek dink die regte besluit(e) is geneem. Corona is nie maar net nog ‘n strain van griep soos jy vroeër gesê het nie (lees wat ek geskryf het onder @Beet se Corona blog).

    Ons sal maar reruns van Little House on the Prairie, McGyver en hoe die Bulls die Superugby trofee(s) gewen het oor en oor moet kyk die jaar.

    ReplyReply
  15. @Wonder: Eks nou so kwaad eks bang as ek verder tik verban Beet my van die blog af.Gim en Kwaggas met hul sterkste spanne in jare….Ai…Se net vir my wats die logika agter 100 en nie meer nie??Is 100 containment??Wat van niks???

    ReplyReply
  16. @Grizzly: As ‘n dokter reken dis beter so dan aanvaar ek dit. Nou gaan ons moet punte deel met Gim en Kwaggas, kan ons rakings help :wink:

    ReplyReply
  17. @tzavosky: Nie geweet jy is die dokter nie. Ligpunt is jy gaan in die geskiedenisboeke wees.
    Neem aan jy is ok.
    Sien Gilliad is in hofsaak gewikkel om nie hul medisyne – wat blykbaar beste werk – aan China te verskaf nie, want hulle is bang die Chinese versprei dit gratis na res van die wêreld. Baie kortsigtig.

    ReplyReply
  18. @Grizzly: Dis ‘n simboliese getal sodat mense darem nog goed soos troues en begrafnisse kan hou.

    Ek voorsien ‘n moerse geskarrel by kerke vir die beskikbare 98 plekke per diens…

    ReplyReply
  19. @tzavosky: Daar gaan oor die 30 000 mense dood van die griep virus in SA jaarliks,dit beteken oor n miljoen moet infected raak om saam te gesels.die mortality rate is 2,3% van die ding met jong kinders wat nie regtig geraak word nie.Dink jy nie hiers ooreageer nie?

    ReplyReply
  20. @Djou: Ja, sover OK, en ons is gerat met space suits, P95 maskers edm by ons noodeenheid met ‘n plan van aksie as iemand homself aanmeld.

    Die groot issue is wanneer iemand onaangekondig/onwetend by ‘n wagkamer instap en niemand vermoed iets nie en het nie die nodige voorbereidings getref nie. Ideaal is dat ‘n persoon met ‘n vermoede vooraf telefonies met ‘n noodeenheid/praktyk kontak maak.

    ReplyReply
  21. @Grizzly: Ons weet nie op die stadium wat die presiese mortaliteitsyfer is nie, want dit hang van baie goed af, oa die ouderdom van die pasiënt, die beskikbaarheid van hitec mediese dienste (en die kapasiteit daarvan). Soos ek dit het, is die syfer wat jy gee vir Suid-Korea, maar in Italië is dit 13% vanweë hulle hoë bevolkingsouderdom.

    So, nee, dis nie oorreaksie nie (wat in elk geval beter is as complacency) – die idee is om te infeksiesyfer en verspreiding te probeer beperk tot tyd en wyl ‘n doeltreffende entstof ontwikkel is, wat 12-18 maande kan neem.

    ReplyReply
  22. Well that’s it then for the Easter Rugby Festivals , big sympathy for all the organizing schools and for all the boys who would have participated .

    ReplyReply
  23. @tzavosky: Oor die jong kinders wat nie juis geaffekteer word nie, dis juis die probleem – ‘n persoon wat nie besonders siek voorkom nie, is die grootste verspreidingsbron.

    ReplyReply
  24. @Grizzly: Daardie syfers is % van getalle. Die modelle wys die werklike syfers is minstens 30% meer as griep, in aggenome die eksponensiële verspreiding, werklike getalle (wat onwetend is) en aangemelde getalle (waaroor ons beskik).

    ReplyReply
  25. My lightie and his team went down to Bloem today for tomorrow night’s VC game, but it’s been cancelled, so they’ll head back tomorrow morning.

    ReplyReply
  26. @tzavosky: Yes, I actually agree. Did some modelling myself and read up on findings of other models.
    I posed a question to see how people will react, not to draw a conclusion.

    ReplyReply
  27. It’s an overreaction in my view. Precaution is great and needed, but really? Flu has been around for as long as humanity has been around.

    ReplyReply
  28. @Djou: No worries, somehow I expected you to do that, ie the modelling part.

    I’m neither a statistician nor an epidemiologist, but I’ve done just enough in my studies to grasp what is happening and interpret the different graphs that are available. It is rather worrisome.

    ReplyReply
  29. To quote Jurgen Klopp “If it’s a choice between football and the good of the wider society, it’s no contest. Really, it isn’t.”

    ReplyReply
  30. @Playa: Don’t fall for the “it’s just flu” fake news that is going around, it isn’t as I have tried to explain in my post above.

    But speaking of flu, the year before last a guy from my town contracted flu and was on ecmo – check out that term, but it basically means your blood is oxygenated outside your body by a machine – for several months. I mention this, because that’s what will be needed if we get a full blown covid-19 epidemic, a lot of it, which we don’t have. There’s also a real possibility that the capacity of our health system could be completely overrun by the number of cases.

    Unless, of course, we want to argue that our elderly and already ill are dispensable, but that’s not a notion I’d like to entertain.

    ReplyReply
  31. @tzavosky: It’s a strain of flu. Flu kills more people a day. Hell, ebola is even worse. Corona is a combination of 3 strains of flu. Treat able as long as your immune system is fine. And to prevent it is easier than preventing HIV because you don’t need to buy condoms. You just need to practice basic hygiene

    ReplyReply
  32. @Playa: You are really one of the guys I respect the most on this forum, but you are wrong on this. The Corona virus is something completely different from the Influenza virus, please check it out from a reliable online source like livescience.com (search coronavirus vs flu).

    And as you mention ebola – what makes a virus “clever” vs “dumb”? A “dumb” virus is so virulent that it kills its host so fast that it only affects a small isolated population and then cease to propagate anymore. Ebola fits that bill as far as humans are concerned (it actually does a lot better in certain bats, from where humans become accidentally infected.)

    A “clever” virus actually does not kill you by itself, it makes you chronically ill and propagates silently until something else kills you – that’s HIV.

    Corona from what we know at this point is not as clever as HIV, but a lot more clever than ebola – it kills some people, but ensures that it spreads effectively among people to sustain itself.

    ReplyReply
  33. Manne moet solank proewe hou vir 2021.
    Uitgesien na die bulstryd tussen Gim en Grey..

    ReplyReply
  34. I am a expert in my field. I have been a amature gynecologist from age 14 and as a expert i can tell you all…..this virus sucks, because i want to watch rugby and now its all cancelled. Thats my professional opinion.

    ReplyReply
  35. Wildeklawer has officially been cancelled.
    Their Exco will look at options to reschedule the tournament in a shortened form at a later date.

    ReplyReply
  36. ALLE OPENBARE EVENTS WAT MEER AS 100 MENSE GAAN BYWOON IS VERBIED…. So die Bulls en lions se games gaan voortgaan….

    ReplyReply
  37. @Smallies: Met al die coaching staff, en n horde skeidsregters en assistente sal self n lee stadion naby aan 100 man kom.

    ReplyReply
  38. @Beet: Grey kollege sent out a letter, all sports tours are stopped for the hollidays,including culture events as well as assembly periods….

    ReplyReply
  39. @Rainier: Omstrede :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

    telling het kwaggastjies gevlei-n paar drie teen die einde

    dis ongeluki
    kig een v daai spanne wat sal uitsak as hulle ouer raak-

    ReplyReply
  40. @boerboel: Ek is geneig om met jou saam te stem, ek onthou ook GLAD nie die wedstryd as een wat omstrede was nie.
    Almal langs die veld was dit eens, die beste span op die dag het as oorwinnaars van die veld gestap.

    ReplyReply
  41. @Strepie: So Strepie al wat jy wou doen is ‘n reaksie uitlok. Die punt is julle het verder aan in die jaar twee ander wedstryde verloor teen spanne wat outeniqua geklop het. Boerboel ek kan glad nie met jou saamstem nie. Die span sal goed bly tot in matriek. Sal nioe soos bois ‘n paar A+ spelers gaan soek om swak plekke aan te vul nie. Maar sal nog steeds goed wees.

    Soos hierdie jaar se eerste span. Net 1 speler in die begin span en reserwes was nie by Outeniqua as onder 14 nie.

    En ek hoop van harte dat ons hierdie jaar later aan wel teen julle kan speel.

    ReplyReply
  42. @AntonT: Dit was glad nie my bedoeling nie.
    Miskien moet ek in die die toekoms nie tweedehandse kennis as die waarheid beskou nie.
    Vriende wat die wedstryd laas jaar gekyk het, het dit net so aan my oorvertel.
    Ons vul wel sekere posisies aan, maar ek glo tog dit bied n seun geleentheid in n skool wat n platform aan hom verskaf om hoer louere te bereik. Ek sien nie fout met die model nie. Die seun moet nogsteeds deur die normale onderhoudsproses gaan soos elke liewe ander seun.
    Ek moet n pluimpie aan die kwaggas gee – julle kompeteer altyd baie goed teen die groot kanonne.

    ReplyReply
  43. @AntonT: Hi Anton , ek verneem daar is wel ‘n nuwe datum op besluit so dit lyk of naweek wel gaan plaasvind . Alhoewel dinge is nou so deurmekaar dit moet seker nou amper dag vir dag ge- evalueer word .

    ReplyReply
  44. @AntonT: Dis al wat sekere mense op die blog doen, vis vir reaksie.

    Kort voor lank is die man oor sy jersey kwyt en dan lyk hy ook soos ‘n Xoloitzcuintly.

    ReplyReply
  45. @Rainier: ek dink jy lewer onder a valse illusie
    as jy mooi gaan lees wat strepie geskryf het sal jy dalk n ander deuntjie sing

    ReplyReply

Leave a Reply